A Future Supply Model for Bitcoin’s Market Cap by ...

5 DeFi with the largest market cap.

5 DeFi with the largest market cap.

https://preview.redd.it/ntemoipeonv51.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f3647e38961b0ab4829860f78f4858835ac1ad12
The formula for determining capitalization is quite simple. The number of tokens in circulation multiplied by the current value of a token. For example, if there are 100 tokens in circulation, and the cost of each token is $10, then the capitalization equals $1000.
1st - CHAINLINK. At the moment, its market capitalization is $4,6 mln., with daily volume of $1,2 mln..
2nd - Wrapped Bitcoin. Market capitalization for the token is $1,4mln., daily volume equals $0,1 mln..
3rd place - Dai. Market capitalization for a given token consists of $0,9 mln.. Daily volume is approximately $0.1 mln.
4th - Maker. With the market capitalization of $0,6 mln, the volume reaches about $30,000.
Finishing the list on the 5th position - Uniswap. The token has a market capitalization of almost $0,6 mln.. The daily volume for a token is $0,3 mln.
What do you think, which of the tokens has the brightest future?
___________
#cryptocurrency #bitcoin #defi #fintech
submitted by kon_grin to OKSCHAIN [link] [comments]

MCS | Ethereum Perpetual Contract Release

MCS | Ethereum Perpetual Contract Release

https://preview.redd.it/pq2ztf3bytr51.jpg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=381f55d46e2ac4cc1a5504258d4e9798b063d817
#Be_a_Trader!
Greetings from MCS, the derivatives trading platform where traders ALWAYS come first.

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💎 What is Ethereum?

Ethereum, with a market capitalization of $400 billion as of October 5, 2020, ranks second after Bitcoin. Ethereum was designed by a Russian Canadian developer Vitalik Buterin in 2013, and is a blockchain platform that has implemented smart contracts on blockchain. Currently, Ethereum is being mined using the Proof of Work (PoW) method, but it will be changed to Proof of Stake (PoS) through the Ethereum 2.0 update later this year.
🔸 Ethereum Website : https://ethereum.org/en/
🔸 Ethereum Twitter : https://twitter.com/ethereum
🔸 Ethereum Whitepaper : https://github.com/ethereum/wiki/wiki/White-Paper
🔸 MCS | Ethereum Report : https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ROOSuKKc_rywDBpY_qFfEXulawGQvyXp/view?usp=sharing

💎 Ethereum Perpetual Contract Details

🔸 Trade Open : 8th of October 2020 4AM (UTC)
🔸 Ethereum Contract Specifications : https://mycoinstory.com/contract/perpetual/ETHUSDT
🔸 Ethereum Contract Calculation Formula : https://help.mycoinstory.com/hc/en-us/articles/900002192163-Quanto-Futures-Contract-Formulas
For inquiries related to Ethereum Perpetual Contracts, please contact us through Live Chat or Telegram.

Traders ALWAYS come first on MCS.
Thank you.

MCS Website: https://mycoinstory.com/
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submitted by MyCoinStory to MyCoinStory [link] [comments]

A Physicist's Bitcoin Trading Strategy. No leverage, no going short, just spot trading. Total cumulative outperformance 2011-2020: 13,000,000%.

https://www.tradingview.com/script/4J5psNDo-A-Physicist-s-Bitcoin-Trading-Strategy/
3. Backtest Results
Backtest results demonstrate significant outperformance over buy-and-hold . The default parameters of the strategy/indicator have been set by the author to achieve maximum (or, close to maximum) outperformance on backtests executed on the BTCUSD ( Bitcoin ) chart. However, significant outperformance over buy-and-hold is still easily achievable using non-default parameters. Basically, as long as the parameters are set to adequately capture the full character of the market, significant outperformance on backtests is achievable and is quite easy. In fact, after some experimentation, it seems as if underperformance hardly achievable and requires deliberately setting the parameters illogically (e.g. setting one parameter of the slow indicator faster than the fast indicator). In the interest of providing a quality product to the user, suggestions and guidelines for parameter settings are provided in section (6). Finally, some metrics of the strategy's outperformance on the BTCUSD chart are listed below, both for the default (optimal) parameters as well as for a random sample of parameter settings that adhere to the guidelines set forth in section (6).
Using the default parameters, relative to buy-and-hold strategy, backtested from August 2011 to August 2020,
Using the default parameters, relative to buy-and-hold strategy, during specific periods,
Using a random sample (n=20) of combinations of parameter settings that adhere to the guidelines outlined in section (6), relative to buy-and-hold strategy, backtested from August 2011 to August 2020,
EDIT (because apparently not everybody bothers to read the strategy's description):
7. General Remarks About the Indicator
Other than some exponential moving averages, no traditional technical indicators or technical analysis tools are employed in this strategy. No MACD , no RSI , no CMF , no Bollinger bands , parabolic SARs, Ichimoku clouds , hoosawatsits, XYZs, ABCs, whatarethese. No tea leaves can be found in this strategy, only mathematics. It is in the nature of the underlying math formula, from which the indicator is produced, to quickly identify trend changes.
8. Remarks About Expectations of Future Results and About Backtesting
8.1. In General As it's been stated in many prospectuses and marketing literature, "past performance is no guarantee of future results." Backtest results are retrospective, and hindsight is 20/20. Therefore, no guarantee can, nor should, be expressed by me or anybody else who is selling a financial product (unless you have a money printer, like the Federal Reserve does).
8.2. Regarding This Strategy No guarantee of future results using this strategy is expressed by the author, not now nor at any time in the future.
With that written, the author is free to express his own expectations and opinions based on his intimate knowledge of how the indicator works, and the author will take that liberty by writing the following: As described in section (7), this trading strategy does not include any traditional technical indicators or TA tools (other than smoothing EMAs). Instead, this strategy is based on a principle that does not change, it employs a complex indicator that is based on a math formula that does not change, and it places trades based on five simple rules that do not change. And, as described in section (2.1), the indicator is designed to capture the full character of the market, from a macro/global scope down to a micro/local scope. Additionally, as described in section (3), outperformance of the market for which this strategy was intended during backtesting does not depend on luckily setting the parameters "just right." In fact, all random combinations of parameter settings that followed the guidelines outperformed the intended market in backtests. Additionally, no parameters are included within the underlying math formula from which the indicator is produced; it is not as if the formula contains a "5" and future outperformance would depend on that "5" being a "6" instead. And, again as described, it is in the nature of the formula to quickly identify trend changes. Therefore, it is the opinion of the author that the outperformance of this strategy in backtesting is directly attributable to the fundamental nature of the math formula from which the indicator is produced. As such, it is also the opinion of the author that continued outperformance by using this strategy, applied to the crypto ( Bitcoin ) market, is likely, given that the parameter settings are set reasonably and in accordance with the guidelines. The author does not, however, expect future outperformance of this strategy to match or exceed the outperformance observed in backtests using the default parameters, i.e. it probably won't outperform by anything close to 13,000,000% during the next 9 years.
Additionally, based on the rolling 1-month outperformance data listed in section (3), expectations of short-term outperformance should be kept low; the median 1-month outperformance was -2%, so it's basically a 50/50 chance that any significant outperformance is seen in any given month. The true strength of this strategy is to be out of the market during large, sharp declines and capitalizing on the opportunities presented at the bottom of those declines by buying the dip. Given that such price action does not happen every month, outperformance in the initial months of use is approximately as likely as underperformance.
submitted by anon2414691 to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

TA Gurus, explain my chart..

TA Gurus, explain my chart..
This is a chart I made up that roughly correlates Bitcoin market cap to Bitcoin mining costs. It is "normalized" through the halvenings. It definitely shows a downward trend. The "normalization" for halvenings applies a 100% coefficent post 2020 halvening, a 50% coefficent after the 2016 halvening and a 25% coefficent before the 2016 halvening.
The formula sprung from a discussion I was having on BTC wealth redistribution, and how the BTC holders rely on the miners to secure the chain. The counter argument was that the holders could just pay for the mining themselves.
Since bitcoin is non-inflationary, this could be thought of as a type of negative interest rate. If every holder had to offer a 100% subsidy to the miners to maintain the blockchain, what would that look like in the terms of a continual interest rate. So here's the formula.
Continual Interest function: A = P*exp(r*t) ln(A) = ln(P) + rt r = ln(A) / ln(P) / t r = ln(A/P) / t # (where t = 1/365, aka one day) r = ln(1 + I/P) / t # (where A/P = 1+I/P; with 'I' being pct growth interest = norm_coef * ln(1 + daily_mining_cost / btc_market_cap) * 365 
The datasource is from bitinfocharts.com referencing "Market Capitalization", "Hashrate" and "Mining Profitability" fields. "Daily Mining Cost" is derived by "Profitability * Hashrate" once correcting for unit scales.
So why is it after normalizing for the halvenings this interest function is on a negative trend over the last 5 years?
--
Interest -v- Date
--
submitted by brianddk to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

All you need to know about Yield Farming - The rocket fuel for Defi

All you need to know about Yield Farming - The rocket fuel for Defi
Source
It’s effectively July 2017 in the world of decentralized finance (DeFi), and as in the heady days of the initial coin offering (ICO) boom, the numbers are only trending up.
According to DeFi Pulse, there is $1.9 billion in crypto assets locked in DeFi right now. According to the CoinDesk ICO Tracker, the ICO market started chugging past $1 billion in July 2017, just a few months before token sales started getting talked about on TV.
Debate juxtaposing these numbers if you like, but what no one can question is this: Crypto users are putting more and more value to work in DeFi applications, driven largely by the introduction of a whole new yield-generating pasture, Compound’s COMP governance token.
Governance tokens enable users to vote on the future of decentralized protocols, sure, but they also present fresh ways for DeFi founders to entice assets onto their platforms.
That said, it’s the crypto liquidity providers who are the stars of the present moment. They even have a meme-worthy name: yield farmers.

https://preview.redd.it/lxsvazp1g9l51.png?width=775&format=png&auto=webp&s=a36173ab679c701a5d5e0aac806c00fcc84d78c1

Where it started

Ethereum-based credit market Compound started distributing its governance token, COMP, to the protocol’s users this past June 15. Demand for the token (heightened by the way its automatic distribution was structured) kicked off the present craze and moved Compound into the leading position in DeFi.
The hot new term in crypto is “yield farming,” a shorthand for clever strategies where putting crypto temporarily at the disposal of some startup’s application earns its owner more cryptocurrency.
Another term floating about is “liquidity mining.”
The buzz around these concepts has evolved into a low rumble as more and more people get interested.
The casual crypto observer who only pops into the market when activity heats up might be starting to get faint vibes that something is happening right now. Take our word for it: Yield farming is the source of those vibes.
But if all these terms (“DeFi,” “liquidity mining,” “yield farming”) are so much Greek to you, fear not. We’re here to catch you up. We’ll get into all of them.
We’re going to go from very basic to more advanced, so feel free to skip ahead.

What are tokens?

Most CoinDesk readers probably know this, but just in case: Tokens are like the money video-game players earn while fighting monsters, money they can use to buy gear or weapons in the universe of their favorite game.
But with blockchains, tokens aren’t limited to only one massively multiplayer online money game. They can be earned in one and used in lots of others. They usually represent either ownership in something (like a piece of a Uniswap liquidity pool, which we will get into later) or access to some service. For example, in the Brave browser, ads can only be bought using basic attention token (BAT).
If tokens are worth money, then you can bank with them or at least do things that look very much like banking. Thus: decentralized finance.
Tokens proved to be the big use case for Ethereum, the second-biggest blockchain in the world. The term of art here is “ERC-20 tokens,” which refers to a software standard that allows token creators to write rules for them. Tokens can be used a few ways. Often, they are used as a form of money within a set of applications. So the idea for Kin was to create a token that web users could spend with each other at such tiny amounts that it would almost feel like they weren’t spending anything; that is, money for the internet.
Governance tokens are different. They are not like a token at a video-game arcade, as so many tokens were described in the past. They work more like certificates to serve in an ever-changing legislature in that they give holders the right to vote on changes to a protocol.
So on the platform that proved DeFi could fly, MakerDAO, holders of its governance token, MKR, vote almost every week on small changes to parameters that govern how much it costs to borrow and how much savers earn, and so on.
Read more: Why DeFi’s Billion-Dollar Milestone Matters
One thing all crypto tokens have in common, though, is they are tradable and they have a price. So, if tokens are worth money, then you can bank with them or at least do things that look very much like banking. Thus: decentralized finance.

What is DeFi?

Fair question. For folks who tuned out for a bit in 2018, we used to call this “open finance.” That construction seems to have faded, though, and “DeFi” is the new lingo.
In case that doesn’t jog your memory, DeFi is all the things that let you play with money, and the only identification you need is a crypto wallet.
On the normal web, you can’t buy a blender without giving the site owner enough data to learn your whole life history. In DeFi, you can borrow money without anyone even asking for your name.
I can explain this but nothing really brings it home like trying one of these applications. If you have an Ethereum wallet that has even $20 worth of crypto in it, go do something on one of these products. Pop over to Uniswap and buy yourself some FUN (a token for gambling apps) or WBTC (wrapped bitcoin). Go to MakerDAO and create $5 worth of DAI (a stablecoin that tends to be worth $1) out of the digital ether. Go to Compound and borrow $10 in USDC.
(Notice the very small amounts I’m suggesting. The old crypto saying “don’t put in more than you can afford to lose” goes double for DeFi. This stuff is uber-complex and a lot can go wrong. These may be “savings” products but they’re not for your retirement savings.)
Immature and experimental though it may be, the technology’s implications are staggering. On the normal web, you can’t buy a blender without giving the site owner enough data to learn your whole life history. In DeFi, you can borrow money without anyone even asking for your name.
DeFi applications don’t worry about trusting you because they have the collateral you put up to back your debt (on Compound, for instance, a $10 debt will require around $20 in collateral).
Read more: There Are More DAI on Compound Now Than There Are DAI in the World
If you do take this advice and try something, note that you can swap all these things back as soon as you’ve taken them out. Open the loan and close it 10 minutes later. It’s fine. Fair warning: It might cost you a tiny bit in fees, and the cost of using Ethereum itself right now is much higher than usual, in part due to this fresh new activity. But it’s nothing that should ruin a crypto user.
So what’s the point of borrowing for people who already have the money? Most people do it for some kind of trade. The most obvious example, to short a token (the act of profiting if its price falls). It’s also good for someone who wants to hold onto a token but still play the market.

Doesn’t running a bank take a lot of money up front?

It does, and in DeFi that money is largely provided by strangers on the internet. That’s why the startups behind these decentralized banking applications come up with clever ways to attract HODLers with idle assets.
Liquidity is the chief concern of all these different products. That is: How much money do they have locked in their smart contracts?
“In some types of products, the product experience gets much better if you have liquidity. Instead of borrowing from VCs or debt investors, you borrow from your users,” said Electric Capital managing partner Avichal Garg.
Let’s take Uniswap as an example. Uniswap is an “automated market maker,” or AMM (another DeFi term of art). This means Uniswap is a robot on the internet that is always willing to buy and it’s also always willing to sell any cryptocurrency for which it has a market.
On Uniswap, there is at least one market pair for almost any token on Ethereum. Behind the scenes, this means Uniswap can make it look like it is making a direct trade for any two tokens, which makes it easy for users, but it’s all built around pools of two tokens. And all these market pairs work better with bigger pools.

Why do I keep hearing about ‘pools’?

To illustrate why more money helps, let’s break down how Uniswap works.
Let’s say there was a market for USDC and DAI. These are two tokens (both stablecoins but with different mechanisms for retaining their value) that are meant to be worth $1 each all the time, and that generally tends to be true for both.
The price Uniswap shows for each token in any pooled market pair is based on the balance of each in the pool. So, simplifying this a lot for illustration’s sake, if someone were to set up a USDC/DAI pool, they should deposit equal amounts of both. In a pool with only 2 USDC and 2 DAI it would offer a price of 1 USDC for 1 DAI. But then imagine that someone put in 1 DAI and took out 1 USDC. Then the pool would have 1 USDC and 3 DAI. The pool would be very out of whack. A savvy investor could make an easy $0.50 profit by putting in 1 USDC and receiving 1.5 DAI. That’s a 50% arbitrage profit, and that’s the problem with limited liquidity.
(Incidentally, this is why Uniswap’s prices tend to be accurate, because traders watch it for small discrepancies from the wider market and trade them away for arbitrage profits very quickly.)
Read more: Uniswap V2 Launches With More Token-Swap Pairs, Oracle Service, Flash Loans
However, if there were 500,000 USDC and 500,000 DAI in the pool, a trade of 1 DAI for 1 USDC would have a negligible impact on the relative price. That’s why liquidity is helpful.
You can stick your assets on Compound and earn a little yield. But that’s not very creative. Users who look for angles to maximize that yield: those are the yield farmers.
Similar effects hold across DeFi, so markets want more liquidity. Uniswap solves this by charging a tiny fee on every trade. It does this by shaving off a little bit from each trade and leaving that in the pool (so one DAI would actually trade for 0.997 USDC, after the fee, growing the overall pool by 0.003 USDC). This benefits liquidity providers because when someone puts liquidity in the pool they own a share of the pool. If there has been lots of trading in that pool, it has earned a lot of fees, and the value of each share will grow.
And this brings us back to tokens.
Liquidity added to Uniswap is represented by a token, not an account. So there’s no ledger saying, “Bob owns 0.000000678% of the DAI/USDC pool.” Bob just has a token in his wallet. And Bob doesn’t have to keep that token. He could sell it. Or use it in another product. We’ll circle back to this, but it helps to explain why people like to talk about DeFi products as “money Legos.”

So how much money do people make by putting money into these products?

It can be a lot more lucrative than putting money in a traditional bank, and that’s before startups started handing out governance tokens.
Compound is the current darling of this space, so let’s use it as an illustration. As of this writing, a person can put USDC into Compound and earn 2.72% on it. They can put tether (USDT) into it and earn 2.11%. Most U.S. bank accounts earn less than 0.1% these days, which is close enough to nothing.
However, there are some caveats. First, there’s a reason the interest rates are so much juicier: DeFi is a far riskier place to park your money. There’s no Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) protecting these funds. If there were a run on Compound, users could find themselves unable to withdraw their funds when they wanted.
Plus, the interest is quite variable. You don’t know what you’ll earn over the course of a year. USDC’s rate is high right now. It was low last week. Usually, it hovers somewhere in the 1% range.
Similarly, a user might get tempted by assets with more lucrative yields like USDT, which typically has a much higher interest rate than USDC. (Monday morning, the reverse was true, for unclear reasons; this is crypto, remember.) The trade-off here is USDT’s transparency about the real-world dollars it’s supposed to hold in a real-world bank is not nearly up to par with USDC’s. A difference in interest rates is often the market’s way of telling you the one instrument is viewed as dicier than another.
Users making big bets on these products turn to companies Opyn and Nexus Mutual to insure their positions because there’s no government protections in this nascent space – more on the ample risks later on.
So users can stick their assets in Compound or Uniswap and earn a little yield. But that’s not very creative. Users who look for angles to maximize that yield: those are the yield farmers.

OK, I already knew all of that. What is yield farming?

Broadly, yield farming is any effort to put crypto assets to work and generate the most returns possible on those assets.
At the simplest level, a yield farmer might move assets around within Compound, constantly chasing whichever pool is offering the best APY from week to week. This might mean moving into riskier pools from time to time, but a yield farmer can handle risk.
“Farming opens up new price arbs [arbitrage] that can spill over to other protocols whose tokens are in the pool,” said Maya Zehavi, a blockchain consultant.
Because these positions are tokenized, though, they can go further.
This was a brand-new kind of yield on a deposit. In fact, it was a way to earn a yield on a loan. Who has ever heard of a borrower earning a return on a debt from their lender?
In a simple example, a yield farmer might put 100,000 USDT into Compound. They will get a token back for that stake, called cUSDT. Let’s say they get 100,000 cUSDT back (the formula on Compound is crazy so it’s not 1:1 like that but it doesn’t matter for our purposes here).
They can then take that cUSDT and put it into a liquidity pool that takes cUSDT on Balancer, an AMM that allows users to set up self-rebalancing crypto index funds. In normal times, this could earn a small amount more in transaction fees. This is the basic idea of yield farming. The user looks for edge cases in the system to eke out as much yield as they can across as many products as it will work on.
Right now, however, things are not normal, and they probably won’t be for a while.

Why is yield farming so hot right now?

Because of liquidity mining. Liquidity mining supercharges yield farming.
Liquidity mining is when a yield farmer gets a new token as well as the usual return (that’s the “mining” part) in exchange for the farmer’s liquidity.
“The idea is that stimulating usage of the platform increases the value of the token, thereby creating a positive usage loop to attract users,” said Richard Ma of smart-contract auditor Quantstamp.
The yield farming examples above are only farming yield off the normal operations of different platforms. Supply liquidity to Compound or Uniswap and get a little cut of the business that runs over the protocols – very vanilla.
But Compound announced earlier this year it wanted to truly decentralize the product and it wanted to give a good amount of ownership to the people who made it popular by using it. That ownership would take the form of the COMP token.
Lest this sound too altruistic, keep in mind that the people who created it (the team and the investors) owned more than half of the equity. By giving away a healthy proportion to users, that was very likely to make it a much more popular place for lending. In turn, that would make everyone’s stake worth much more.
So, Compound announced this four-year period where the protocol would give out COMP tokens to users, a fixed amount every day until it was gone. These COMP tokens control the protocol, just as shareholders ultimately control publicly traded companies.
Every day, the Compound protocol looks at everyone who had lent money to the application and who had borrowed from it and gives them COMP proportional to their share of the day’s total business.
The results were very surprising, even to Compound’s biggest promoters.
COMP’s value will likely go down, and that’s why some investors are rushing to earn as much of it as they can right now.
This was a brand-new kind of yield on a deposit into Compound. In fact, it was a way to earn a yield on a loan, as well, which is very weird: Who has ever heard of a borrower earning a return on a debt from their lender?
COMP’s value has consistently been well over $200 since it started distributing on June 15. We did the math elsewhere but long story short: investors with fairly deep pockets can make a strong gain maximizing their daily returns in COMP. It is, in a way, free money.
It’s possible to lend to Compound, borrow from it, deposit what you borrowed and so on. This can be done multiple times and DeFi startup Instadapp even built a tool to make it as capital-efficient as possible.
“Yield farmers are extremely creative. They find ways to ‘stack’ yields and even earn multiple governance tokens at once,” said Spencer Noon of DTC Capital.
COMP’s value spike is a temporary situation. The COMP distribution will only last four years and then there won’t be any more. Further, most people agree that the high price now is driven by the low float (that is, how much COMP is actually free to trade on the market – it will never be this low again). So the value will probably gradually go down, and that’s why savvy investors are trying to earn as much as they can now.
Appealing to the speculative instincts of diehard crypto traders has proven to be a great way to increase liquidity on Compound. This fattens some pockets but also improves the user experience for all kinds of Compound users, including those who would use it whether they were going to earn COMP or not.
As usual in crypto, when entrepreneurs see something successful, they imitate it. Balancer was the next protocol to start distributing a governance token, BAL, to liquidity providers. Flash loan provider bZx has announced a plan. Ren, Curve and Synthetix also teamed up to promote a liquidity pool on Curve.
It is a fair bet many of the more well-known DeFi projects will announce some kind of coin that can be mined by providing liquidity.
The case to watch here is Uniswap versus Balancer. Balancer can do the same thing Uniswap does, but most users who want to do a quick token trade through their wallet use Uniswap. It will be interesting to see if Balancer’s BAL token convinces Uniswap’s liquidity providers to defect.
So far, though, more liquidity has gone into Uniswap since the BAL announcement, according to its data site. That said, even more has gone into Balancer.

Did liquidity mining start with COMP?

No, but it was the most-used protocol with the most carefully designed liquidity mining scheme.
This point is debated but the origins of liquidity mining probably date back to Fcoin, a Chinese exchange that created a token in 2018 that rewarded people for making trades. You won’t believe what happened next! Just kidding, you will: People just started running bots to do pointless trades with themselves to earn the token.
Similarly, EOS is a blockchain where transactions are basically free, but since nothing is really free the absence of friction was an invitation for spam. Some malicious hacker who didn’t like EOS created a token called EIDOS on the network in late 2019. It rewarded people for tons of pointless transactions and somehow got an exchange listing.
These initiatives illustrated how quickly crypto users respond to incentives.
Read more: Compound Changes COMP Distribution Rules Following ‘Yield Farming’ Frenzy
Fcoin aside, liquidity mining as we now know it first showed up on Ethereum when the marketplace for synthetic tokens, Synthetix, announced in July 2019 an award in its SNX token for users who helped add liquidity to the sETH/ETH pool on Uniswap. By October, that was one of Uniswap’s biggest pools.
When Compound Labs, the company that launched the Compound protocol, decided to create COMP, the governance token, the firm took months designing just what kind of behavior it wanted and how to incentivize it. Even still, Compound Labs was surprised by the response. It led to unintended consequences such as crowding into a previously unpopular market (lending and borrowing BAT) in order to mine as much COMP as possible.
Just last week, 115 different COMP wallet addresses – senators in Compound’s ever-changing legislature – voted to change the distribution mechanism in hopes of spreading liquidity out across the markets again.

Is there DeFi for bitcoin?

Yes, on Ethereum.
Nothing has beaten bitcoin over time for returns, but there’s one thing bitcoin can’t do on its own: create more bitcoin.
A smart trader can get in and out of bitcoin and dollars in a way that will earn them more bitcoin, but this is tedious and risky. It takes a certain kind of person.
DeFi, however, offers ways to grow one’s bitcoin holdings – though somewhat indirectly.
A long HODLer is happy to gain fresh BTC off their counterparty’s short-term win. That’s the game.
For example, a user can create a simulated bitcoin on Ethereum using BitGo’s WBTC system. They put BTC in and get the same amount back out in freshly minted WBTC. WBTC can be traded back for BTC at any time, so it tends to be worth the same as BTC.
Then the user can take that WBTC, stake it on Compound and earn a few percent each year in yield on their BTC. Odds are, the people who borrow that WBTC are probably doing it to short BTC (that is, they will sell it immediately, buy it back when the price goes down, close the loan and keep the difference).
A long HODLer is happy to gain fresh BTC off their counterparty’s short-term win. That’s the game.

How risky is it?

Enough.
“DeFi, with the combination of an assortment of digital funds, automation of key processes, and more complex incentive structures that work across protocols – each with their own rapidly changing tech and governance practices – make for new types of security risks,” said Liz Steininger of Least Authority, a crypto security auditor. “Yet, despite these risks, the high yields are undeniably attractive to draw more users.”
We’ve seen big failures in DeFi products. MakerDAO had one so bad this year it’s called “Black Thursday.” There was also the exploit against flash loan provider bZx. These things do break and when they do money gets taken.
As this sector gets more robust, we could see token holders greenlighting more ways for investors to profit from DeFi niches.
Right now, the deal is too good for certain funds to resist, so they are moving a lot of money into these protocols to liquidity mine all the new governance tokens they can. But the funds – entities that pool the resources of typically well-to-do crypto investors – are also hedging. Nexus Mutual, a DeFi insurance provider of sorts, told CoinDesk it has maxed out its available coverage on these liquidity applications. Opyn, the trustless derivatives maker, created a way to short COMP, just in case this game comes to naught.
And weird things have arisen. For example, there’s currently more DAI on Compound than have been minted in the world. This makes sense once unpacked but it still feels dicey to everyone.
That said, distributing governance tokens might make things a lot less risky for startups, at least with regard to the money cops.
“Protocols distributing their tokens to the public, meaning that there’s a new secondary listing for SAFT tokens, [gives] plausible deniability from any security accusation,” Zehavi wrote. (The Simple Agreement for Future Tokens was a legal structure favored by many token issuers during the ICO craze.)
Whether a cryptocurrency is adequately decentralized has been a key feature of ICO settlements with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

What’s next for yield farming? (A prediction)

COMP turned out to be a bit of a surprise to the DeFi world, in technical ways and others. It has inspired a wave of new thinking.
“Other projects are working on similar things,” said Nexus Mutual founder Hugh Karp. In fact, informed sources tell CoinDesk brand-new projects will launch with these models.
We might soon see more prosaic yield farming applications. For example, forms of profit-sharing that reward certain kinds of behavior.
Imagine if COMP holders decided, for example, that the protocol needed more people to put money in and leave it there longer. The community could create a proposal that shaved off a little of each token’s yield and paid that portion out only to the tokens that were older than six months. It probably wouldn’t be much, but an investor with the right time horizon and risk profile might take it into consideration before making a withdrawal.
(There are precedents for this in traditional finance: A 10-year Treasury bond normally yields more than a one-month T-bill even though they’re both backed by the full faith and credit of Uncle Sam, a 12-month certificate of deposit pays higher interest than a checking account at the same bank, and so on.)
As this sector gets more robust, its architects will come up with ever more robust ways to optimize liquidity incentives in increasingly refined ways. We could see token holders greenlighting more ways for investors to profit from DeFi niches.
Questions abound for this nascent industry: What will MakerDAO do to restore its spot as the king of DeFi? Will Uniswap join the liquidity mining trend? Will anyone stick all these governance tokens into a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO)? Or would that be a yield farmers co-op?
Whatever happens, crypto’s yield farmers will keep moving fast. Some fresh fields may open and some may soon bear much less luscious fruit.
But that’s the nice thing about farming in DeFi: It is very easy to switch fields.
submitted by pascalbernoulli to Yield_Farming [link] [comments]

The White Dragon : A Canadian Dragon Portfolio

Alright guys, Ive been working on this for a while and a post on here by a guy describing his portfolio here was the final kick in the ass for me to put this together. I started writing this to summarize what Im doing for my friends who are beginners, and also for me to make some sense of it for myself
Hopefully parts of it are useful to you, and also ideally you guys can point out errors or have a suggestion or two. I'm posting this here as opposed to investing or canadianinvestor (blech) because they're just gonna tell me to buy an index fund.
This first section is a preamble describing the Canadian tax situation and why Im doing things the way that I am. Feel free to skip it if you dont care about that. Also, there might be mistake regarding what the laws are here so dont take my word for it and verify it for yourself please.
So here in Canada we have two types of registered accounts (theres actually more but whatver). There is the TFSA "Tax Free Savings Account", and RRSP "Registered Retirement Savings Account"
For the sake of simplicity, from the time you turn 18 you are allowed to deposit 5k (it changes year to year based on inflation etc)in each of them. That "room" accumulates retroactively, so if you haventdone anything and are starting today and you are 30 you have around 60k you can put in each of them. The prevailing wisdom is that you should max out the TFSA first and you'll see why in a minute.

TFSA is post tax deposits, with no capital gains or other taxes applied to selling your securities, dividends or anything else. You can withdraw your gains at any time, and the amount that you withdraw is added to the "room" you have for the next year. So lets say I maxed out my TFSA contributions and I take out 20k today, on January of next year I can put back in 20k plus the 5 or whatever they allow for that year. You can see how powerful this is. Theres a few limitations on what is eligable to be held in the TFSA such as bitcoin/bitcoin ETFs, overseas stocks that arent listed on NYSE, TSX, london and a few others. You can Buy to Open and Sell to Close call and put options as well as write Covered Calls.

The RRSP is pre-tax deposits and is a tax deferred scheme. You deposit to lower your income tax burden (and hopefully drop below a bracket) but once you retire you will be taxed on anything you pull out. Withdrawing early has huge penalties and isnt recommended. You are however allowed to borrow against it for a down payment as a first time home buyer. The strategy with these is that a youngperson entering the workforce is likely to be in a fairly low tax bracket and (hopefully) earns more money as they get older and more skilled so the RRSP has more value the greater your pre-taxincome is. You can also do this Self Directed. Its not relevant to this strategy but I included it for the sake of context.
Non registered accounts ( or any other situation, such as selling commercial real estate etc) is subject to a capital gains tax. In so far as I understand it, you add all your gains and losses up at the end of the year. If its a positive number, you cut that number IN HALF and add it to your regular pre-tax income. So if I made 60k from the dayjob and 20k on my margin account that adds up to 70k that I get taxed on. if its a loss, you carry that forward into the next year. Theres no distinction between long term and short term. Also physical PMs are treated differently and I'll fill that part in later once I have the details down.
The reason why all that babble is important is that my broker Questrade, which isnt as good as IB (the only real other option up here as far as Im aware) has one amazing feature that no other broker has: "Margin Power"
If you have a TFSA and a Margin account with them, you can link them together and have your securities in the TFSA collateralise your Margin account. Essentially, when it comes to the Maintenance Excess of the Margin Account QT doesnt care if its in the TFSA *or* the Margin!
You can see how powerful this is.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So as you can tell by the title, a lot of this is heavily inspired by Chris Cole's paper "The Allegory of the Hawk and the Serpent". You can read it here: https://www.artemiscm.com/welcome#research
Between it, his interviews and my mediocre options skills at the time my mind was blown. Unfortunately I didnt know how to do the Long Volatility part until after the crash in March but I've since then had nothing but time to scour the internet and learn as much as I could.
The way I interpret this isnt necessarily "what you should have right now", but what abstracted model they were able to backtest that gave them the best performance over the 90 years. Also, a lot of my portfolio I already had before I started trying to build this.
As such my allocations dont match the proportions he gave. Not saying my allocations are better, just showing where they are at this time.
I'm going to describe how I do Long Volatility at the end rather than the beginning since the way *I* do it wont make sense until you see the rest of the portflio.

Physical PMs 22%
I'm not sure wether he intended this to be straight up physical gold or include miners and royalty streaming companies so I will just keep this as physical.
I consider Silver to be a non-expiring call option on gold, so that can live here too. I am actually *very* overweight silver and my strategy is to convert a large portion of it to gold (mostly my bars) to gold as the ratio tightens up.
If youre into crypto, you can arguably say that has a place in this section.
If an ETF makes sense for part of your portfolio, I suggest the Sprott ones such as PHYS. Sprott is an honest business and they actually have the metal they say they have. If you have enough, you can redeem your shares from the Royal Canadian Mint. The only downside is that they dont have an options chain, so you cant sell covered calls etc. Simple enough I suppose.
One thing to bear in mind, there is a double edged sword with this class of assets. They're out of the system, theyre nobody's business but your own and theres no counter party. That unfortunately means that you cant lever against it for margin or sell covered calls etc. You can still buy puts though (more on that later)

Commodity Trend (CTA) 10%
https://youtu.be/tac8sWPZW0w
Patrick Ceresna gave a good presentation on what this strategy is. Until I watched this video I just thought it meant "buy commodities". A real CTA does this with futures also so aside from the way he showed, there are two other ETFs that are worth looking at.
COM - This is an explicit trend following ETF that follows a LONG/FLAT strategy instead of LONG/SHORT on a pile of commodity futures. So if they get a "sell" signal for oil or soybeans they sell what they have and go to cash.
COMT- Holds an assortment of different month futures in different commodities, as well as a *lot* of various related shares in producers. Its almost a one stop shop commodities portfolio. Pays a respectable dividend in December
If you want to break the "rules" of CTA, and include equities theres a few others that are also worth looking at
KOL- This is a coal ETF. The problems with it are that a lot of the holdings dont have much to do with coal. One of them is a tractor company. A lot of the companies are Chinese so theres a bit of a red flag.
Obviously Thermal Coal, the kind used for heating and powerplants isnt in vogue and wont be moving forward...but coking coal is used for steel manufacturing and that ain't going anywhere. The dividend is huge, pays out in December. A very very small position might be worth the risk.
Uranium- I'm in URA because thats the only way for me to get exposure to Kazatoprom (#1 producer), which is 20% of the holdings. The other 20% is Cameco (#2 producer)and then its random stuff.
Other than that I have shares in Denison which seems like its a good business with some interesting projects underway. I'm still studying the uranium space so I dont really have much to say about it of any value.
RSX- Russia large caps. If you dont want to pick between the myriad of undervalued, high dividend paying commodity companies that Russia has then just grab this. It only pays in December but it has a liquid options chain so you can do Covered Calls in the meantime if you want.
NTR- Nutrien, canadian company that was formed when two others merged. They are now the worlds largest potash producer. Pretty good dividend. They have some financial difficulties and the stocks been in a downtrend forever. I feel its a good candidate to watch or sell some puts on.
I'm trying to come up with a way to play agriculture since this new phase we're going to be entering is likely to cause huge food shortages.

EURN and NAT- I got in fairly early on the Tanker hype before it was even hype as a way to short oil but I got greedy and lost a lot of my gains. I pared down my position and I'm staying for the dividend.
If you get an oil sell signal, this might be a way to play that still.

Fixed Income/Bonds 10%

Now, I am not a bond expert but unless youre doing some wacky spreads with futures or whatever... I dont see much reason to buy government debt any more. If you are, youre basically betting that they take rates negative. Raoul Pal of Real Vision is pretty firm in his conviction that this will happen. I know better than to argue with him but I dont see risk/reward as being of much value.
HOWEVER, I found two interesting ETFs that seem to bring something to this portfolio
IVOL- This is run by Nancy Davis, and is comprised of TIPS bonds which are nominally inflation protected (doubt its real inflation but whatever) overlayed with some OTC options that are designed to pay off big if the Fed loses control of the long end of the yield curve, which is what might happen during a real inflation situation. Pays out a decent yield monthly
TAIL- This is a simpler portfolio of 10yr treasuries with ladder of puts on the SPX. Pays quarterly.

Equities 58% (shared with options/volatility below)
This is where it gets interesting, obviously most of this is in mining shares but before I get to those I found some interesting stuff that I'm intending to build up as I pare down my miners when the time comes to start doing that.
VIRT- I cant remember where I saw this, but people were talking about this as a volatility play. Its not perfect, but look at the chart compared to SPY. Its a HFT/market making operation, the wackier things get the more pennies they can scalp. A 4% dividend isnt shabby either.
FUND- This is an interesting closed end fund run by Whitney George, one of the principals at Sprott. He took it with him when he joined the company. Ive read his reports and interviews and I really like his approach to value and investing. He's kind of like if Warren Buffett was a gold bug. Theres 120 holdings in there, mostly small caps and very diverse...chicken factories, ball bearings all kinds of boring ass shit that nobody knows exists. Whats crucial is that most of it "needs to exist". Between him, his family and other people at Sprott they control 40% or so of the shares, so they definitely have skin in the game. Generous dividend.
ZIG- This is a "deep value" strategy fund, run by Tobias Carlisle. He has a fairly simple valuation formula called the Acquirer's Multiple that when he backtested it, is supposed to perform very well. He did an interview with Chris Cole on real Vision where he discusses how Value and Deep Value havent done well recently, but over the last 100 years have proven to be very viable strategies. If we feel that theres a new cycle brewing, then this strategy may work again moving forward.

I want to pause and point out something here, Chris Cole, Nassim Taleb and the guys at Mutiny Fund spend a lot of effort explaining that building a portfolio is a lot like putting together a good basketall team. They need to work together, and pick up each others slack
A lot of the ETFs I'm listing here are in many ways portfolios in and of themselves and are *actively managed*. I specifically chose them because they follow a methodology that I respect but I can't do myself because I dont have the skill, temperament or access to.
The next one is a hidden gem and ties into this. I'm not sure how much more upside there is in this one but man was I surprised.
SII- Sprott Inc. I *never* see people listing this stock in their PMs portfolios. A newsletter I'm subscribed to described this stock as the safest way to play junior miners. Their industry presence, intellectual capital and connections means that they get *the best* private placement deals in the best opportunities. I cant compete with a staff like theirs and I'm not going to try. I bought this at 2.50, and I liked the dividend. Since then they did a reverse split to get on the NYSE and like the day after the stock soared.
When it comes to mining ETFS I like GOAU and SILJ the best. None of their major holdings are dead weight companies that are only there because of market cap. I dont want Barrick in my portfolio etc.
SGDJ is a neat version of GDXJ.
Aside from that my individual miners/royalty companies are (no particular order)
MMX
SAND
PAAS
PGM
AUM
AG
MUX
RIO- Rio2 on the tsx, not rio tinto
KTN
KL
Options/Volatility: varies
So this is where we get to the part about options, Volatility and how I do it. I started out in the options space with The Wheel strategy and the Tastytrade approach of selling premium. The spreads and puts I sell, are on shares listed above, in fact some of those I dont hold anymore.
Theres tons of stuff on this in thetagang and options so I wont go into a whole bunch (and you shouldnt be learning the mechanics from me anyway) but theres one thing I want to go over before it gets wild.
If I sell a Cash Secured Put, from a risk management perspective its identical to just buying 100 shares of the underlying security. You are equally "Short Vol" as well, it just that with options
its a little more explicit with the Greeks and everything. But if I use my margin that I was talking about earlier, then I can still collect the premium and the interest doesnt kick in unless Im actually assigned the shares.
But if I sell too many puts on KL or AG, and something happens where the miners get cut down (and lets be real, they all move together) my margin goes down and then I get assigned and kaboom...my account gets blown up
So what I need to do, is balance out the huge Short Vol situation in my portfolio, be net Long Vol and directly hedge my positions. Since the overwhelming majority of my equities are all tied to bullion this is actually a very easy thing to do.

Backspreads
https://youtu.be/pvX5_rkm5x0
https://youtu.be/-jTvWOGVsK8
https://youtu.be/muYjjm934iY

So I set this up so the vast majority of my margin is tied up in these 1-2 or even 1-3 ratio put spreads that *I actually put on for a small credit*, and roll them every once in a while. I run them on SLV, and GDX.
I keep enough room on my margin so I can withstand a 10% drawdown before it sets off the long end of the spreads and then I can ride it out until it turns around and we keep the PM bull market going.
Theres another cool spread I've been using, which is a modified Jade Lizard; if already hold shares, I'll sell a put, sell a covered call, and use some of the premium to buy a longer dated call. Ive been running this on AG mostly.
I have a few more spreads I can show you but Im tired now so it'll have to wait for later.
As I said multiple times, I do intend to trim these miners later but now isnt the time for that IMO. I'm also monitoring this almost full time since I have an injury and have nothing better to do until I heal :p
submitted by ChudBuntsman to pmstocks [link] [comments]

Crypto / Bitcoin / Mentorship ! -get professional advice and assistance in this wild west

Why Having a MENTOR in Crypto is Very Important
For the past couple of years I have been sharing the exorbitant costs of the elite cryptocurrency Palm Beach newsletter services with a few other people. But what started off as a simple share of the costs of these publications has actually turned into me being a teacher or counselor in the space to many who are completely new to the world of cryptocurrency.
A bit about me:
As someone who has been buying bitcoin since early 2014 I became the ipso facto ‘crypto expert’ among my friends and new newsletter shares. People came to me with all types of questions which I had taken for granted since I had long ago been through the learning curve required to make me highly proficient at navigating the complex waters of cryptocurrency.
It was at this time that I realized just how difficult crypto currency can be for most people. Many things I took for granted are not actually that simple. I’ve gotten questions all over the board over the years: “how do I buy bitcoin?” - or “How do I send it now that I have it”. “What’s a crypto wallet?” “what are the best exchanges to use?”, “what does ERC-20 mean?” …and on and on and on. I realized that things that I took for granted were actually very real concerns and struggles for people. So I became a teacher of sorts to those who needed help getting their footing established in the wild west of crypto, and instead of being someone who simply shared the costs of pricey publications I ended up being a mentor, an ally, and a friend to many of these people.
Here are a few things I’ve noticed over the years:
Most of the mistakes people make are done early on as they are trying to get set up. There are many traps out there to part you with your money. Fly by night exchanges…or even bogus exchanges, people promising you educational courses that turn out to be worthless drivel and many people online telling you which coins to buy hyping things so much because they want YOU to buy their bags - not to make you rich. I once had a friend google a crypto exchange customer service number. The number wasn’t real but a spoof website in a paid search result which connected her to a scammer who proceeded to steal her $8,000 worth of bitcoin in about 30 seconds. Poof! Gone!
What’s important when you are first new to crypto is to realize that everyone has an agenda and most of the time it’s not a mutually beneficial one. This is the wild wild west! You better have your wits about you, and be quick on the draw - otherwise you’ll blink and suddenly find yourself penniless.
But even good guys have an agenda. I know I do! But mine is more altruistic and designed to be “mutually beneficial”. See, I’m hoping to gain some of your trust to have a conversation so that you’ll allow me to be your ally and mentor in the space - giving me the chance to share both my knowledge and the publications you may already want. Like most value adding things in life it starts with a profit motive; capitalism at its purest. But the best business is also the business which helps solve problems. And that is what I am attempting to do here - to connect with a few people that I can add value and insights to and have your back in the wild wild west of cryptocurrency.
Swimming with Sharks or the Land of Milk and Honey?:
With that said cypto is full of some of the slimiest people on earth. Scammers and frauds in boiler rooms in India or Pakistan or China trying to take advantage of your naiveté. It is what it is. Welcome to crypto. But crypto is also the new land of opportunity- a land where you can stake a claim and strike gold, or watch oil just gushing out of the ground. So, yes it can be a wonderful place too! Some of the best people I know I’ve met through my cryptocurrency connections and projects I have become passionate about. Many of these are freedom loving people acutely aware that many things aren’t right in the world and many things need to be changed. We love profit combined with the ideological purity of what crypto is at its core, and usually find agreement in the fact that crypto offers many solutions to a world begging for a paradigm shift towards more honesty and integrity in a broken world full of corrupt systems and cronyism.
But where do you turn for the advice if you are an outsider looking into this fascinating new world and the possibilities that it presents? Do you go to youtube? Do you run to a computer and start googling bitcoin? Will your smart Uncle Joe be able to help you? Certainly, there is a lot of information you can glean our there on your own if you are industrious and persistent. But these are also shark infested waters, and as I said earlier - nearly everyone has an agenda. Usually, as a newbie in crypto you are the “mark” - or as poker players would say; “the fish” at the table. Everyone will welcome you to grab a seat and offer you a smoke… getting you extremely comfortable, before taking your money leaving you wondering what the hell just happened?!
Are you the Customer or “the mark”?
Sadly, many of the latest and greatest crypto publications have also gone the route of the hustler at the poker table. They get you to empty your pockets to enter into the game - and then later they hold you by your ankles and shake you until anything left comes spilling out onto the ground. It’s a brutal world for sure. How many of you are aware that the moment you sign up for Palm Beach (for one example) the next week or even day they will be hitting you up to sign up for yet another multi-thousand dollar subscription service with them or one of their partners like Bonner and Associates or Legacy Research Group? Don’t believe me? Sign up and find out!
To me this is greed at its highest and most perverse level. They claim to want to “help” you become one of the nouveau rich - and they charge a literally boat load of money for the information to do so. The information is very good even! But then just days later you will find out that your information is “incomplete” - and that what you really need to do is to buy this “other” publication which shows you a more nuanced (and shhhh, also secret formula ) to really getting those profits you crave sooner - only even much bigger profits this time - in another sector - oh by the way this will only cost you another $2,500 or $1,500. Really? Are they looking out for their customers or more interested in bleeding them out like pigs? I’d say clearly the latter.
Time for a more Holistic Approach:
For the reasons above I have committed myself to being a crypto mentor and friend in the space - but as a business. As a bonus to signing up with me as your friend and mentor in the space I’ll share with you the publications. This way you help me cover the costs and I help you get what you want; the pricey information. Only I do better by you - in offering you my hand in expertise and kinship and getting your cost greatly reduced at the same time. It’s a no brainer for you really.
Keep in mind I have ALL the Palm Beach publications you could want; (Palm Beach Confidential, Crypto Income Quarterly (the "Tech Royalty" programs), Palm Beach Trader, Alpha Edge, Palm Beach Quant ) and also the lesser known and unrelated Crypto Vigilante of Dollar Vigilante fame (a very underrated publication imo). And you get someone who understands crypto and the crypto markets at a fairly high level - someone with the 10,000+ hours put into the space since 2014 to make me not only highly proficient - but arguably a distinct “expert” in the field.
If you were going to get the $75 rib-eye - wouldn’t the same steak taste even better at $25 - $50 while also having 3 sides (and fancy drinks) included? Your choice. This is what I’m offering you.
I have a videos showing me in all my splendor (lol) and trying to communicate who I am, and what I can do for you. I am currently offering a few levels of memberships to my mentorship and expertise and the publications and info you want. So why not have a brief talk about it? Drop me a line in direct message here (not in the public thread below) - and I’ll get you over the full monty of details regarding signing up with me and getting immediate access to the publications and my brain. ; )
You can also email me at: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
I’ll even send you that private video of me first so you can decide if I’m the type of person you might want to do business with. I look forward to hearing from you! Drop me that message and please leave a brief note of what exactly you might be interested in. Thanks!
Proverbs 15:22 - Without counsel purposes are disappointed: but in the multitude of counsellors they are established.
submitted by remotelyfun to u/remotelyfun [link] [comments]

Crypto / Bitcoin / Mentorship ! -get professional advice and assistance in this wild west

Why Having a MENTOR in Crypto is Very Important
For the past couple of years I have been sharing the exorbitant costs of the elite cryptocurrency Palm Beach newsletter services with a few other people. But what started off as a simple share of the costs of these publications has actually turned into me being a teacher or counselor in the space to many who are completely new to the world of cryptocurrency.
A bit about me:
As someone who has been buying bitcoin since early 2014 I became the ipso facto ‘crypto expert’ among my friends and new newsletter shares. People came to me with all types of questions which I had taken for granted since I had long ago been through the learning curve required to make me highly proficient at navigating the complex waters of cryptocurrency.
It was at this time that I realized just how difficult crypto currency can be for most people. Many things I took for granted are not actually that simple. I’ve gotten questions all over the board over the years: “how do I buy bitcoin?” - or “How do I send it now that I have it”. “What’s a crypto wallet?” “what are the best exchanges to use?”, “what does ERC-20 mean?” …and on and on and on. I realized that things that I took for granted were actually very real concerns and struggles for people. So I became a teacher of sorts to those who needed help getting their footing established in the wild west of crypto, and instead of being someone who simply shared the costs of pricey publications I ended up being a mentor, an ally, and a friend to many of these people.
Here are a few things I’ve noticed over the years:
Most of the mistakes people make are done early on as they are trying to get set up. There are many traps out there to part you with your money. Fly by night exchanges…or even bogus exchanges, people promising you educational courses that turn out to be worthless drivel and many people online telling you which coins to buy hyping things so much because they want YOU to buy their bags - not to make you rich. I once had a friend google a crypto exchange customer service number. The number wasn’t real but a spoof website in a paid search result which connected her to a scammer who proceeded to steal her $8,000 worth of bitcoin in about 30 seconds. Poof! Gone!
What’s important when you are first new to crypto is to realize that everyone has an agenda and most of the time it’s not a mutually beneficial one. This is the wild wild west! You better have your wits about you, and be quick on the draw - otherwise you’ll blink and suddenly find yourself penniless.
But even good guys have an agenda. I know I do! But mine is more altruistic and designed to be “mutually beneficial”. See, I’m hoping to gain some of your trust to have a conversation so that you’ll allow me to be your ally and mentor in the space - giving me the chance to share both my knowledge and the publications you may already want. Like most value adding things in life it starts with a profit motive; capitalism at its purest. But the best business is also the business which helps solve problems. And that is what I am attempting to do here - to connect with a few people that I can add value and insights to and have your back in the wild wild west of cryptocurrency.
Swimming with Sharks or the Land of Milk and Honey?:
With that said cypto is full of some of the slimiest people on earth. Scammers and frauds in boiler rooms in India or Pakistan or China trying to take advantage of your naiveté. It is what it is. Welcome to crypto. But crypto is also the new land of opportunity- a land where you can stake a claim and strike gold, or watch oil just gushing out of the ground. So, yes it can be a wonderful place too! Some of the best people I know I’ve met through my cryptocurrency connections and projects I have become passionate about. Many of these are freedom loving people acutely aware that many things aren’t right in the world and many things need to be changed. We love profit combined with the ideological purity of what crypto is at its core, and usually find agreement in the fact that crypto offers many solutions to a world begging for a paradigm shift towards more honesty and integrity in a broken world full of corrupt systems and cronyism.
But where do you turn for the advice if you are an outsider looking into this fascinating new world and the possibilities that it presents? Do you go to youtube? Do you run to a computer and start googling bitcoin? Will your smart Uncle Joe be able to help you? Certainly, there is a lot of information you can glean our there on your own if you are industrious and persistent. But these are also shark infested waters, and as I said earlier - nearly everyone has an agenda. Usually, as a newbie in crypto you are the “mark” - or as poker players would say; “the fish” at the table. Everyone will welcome you to grab a seat and offer you a smoke… getting you extremely comfortable, before taking your money leaving you wondering what the hell just happened?!
Are you the Customer or “the mark”?
Sadly, many of the latest and greatest crypto publications have also gone the route of the hustler at the poker table. They get you to empty your pockets to enter into the game - and then later they hold you by your ankles and shake you until anything left comes spilling out onto the ground. It’s a brutal world for sure. How many of you are aware that the moment you sign up for Palm Beach (for one example) the next week or even day they will be hitting you up to sign up for yet another multi-thousand dollar subscription service with them or one of their partners like Bonner and Associates or Legacy Research Group? Don’t believe me? Sign up and find out!
To me this is greed at its highest and most perverse level. They claim to want to “help” you become one of the nouveau rich - and they charge a literally boat load of money for the information to do so. The information is very good even! But then just days later you will find out that your information is “incomplete” - and that what you really need to do is to buy this “other” publication which shows you a more nuanced (and shhhh, also secret formula ) to really getting those profits you crave sooner - only even much bigger profits this time - in another sector - oh by the way this will only cost you another $2,500 or $1,500. Really? Are they looking out for their customers or more interested in bleeding them out like pigs? I’d say clearly the latter.
Time for a more Holistic Approach:
For the reasons above I have committed myself to being a crypto mentor and friend in the space - but as a business. As a bonus to signing up with me as your friend and mentor in the space I’ll share with you the publications. This way you help me cover the costs and I help you get what you want; the pricey information. Only I do better by you - in offering you my hand in expertise and kinship and getting your cost greatly reduced at the same time. It’s a no brainer for you really.
Keep in mind I have ALL the Palm Beach publications you could want; (Palm Beach Confidential, Crypto Income Quarterly (the "Tech Royalty" programs), Palm Beach Trader, Alpha Edge, Palm Beach Quant ) and also the lesser known and unrelated Crypto Vigilante of Dollar Vigilante fame (a very underrated publication imo). And you get someone who understands crypto and the crypto markets at a fairly high level - someone with the 10,000+ hours put into the space since 2014 to make me not only highly proficient - but arguably a distinct “expert” in the field.
If you were going to get the $75 rib-eye - wouldn’t the same steak taste even better at $25 - $50 while also having 3 sides (and fancy drinks) included? Your choice. This is what I’m offering you.
I have a videos showing me in all my splendor (lol) and trying to communicate who I am, and what I can do for you. I am currently offering a few levels of memberships to my mentorship and expertise and the publications and info you want. So why not have a brief talk about it? Drop me a line in direct message here (not in the public thread below) - and I’ll get you over the full monty of details regarding signing up with me and getting immediate access to the publications and my brain. ; )
You can also email me at: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
I’ll even send you that private video of me first so you can decide if I’m the type of person you might want to do business with. I look forward to hearing from you! Drop me that message and please leave a brief note of what exactly you might be interested in. Thanks!
Proverbs 15:22 - Without counsel purposes are disappointed: but in the multitude of counsellors they are established.
submitted by remotelyfun to u/remotelyfun [link] [comments]

Where can I post this to get the discussion about it that I’m aiming for? I’ve already been permanently banned from threads and this is only my 5th post ever. I just want thoughtful discussion on important topics.

Save yourself some time and don’t read this. You’ll never get it, unless you do. In which case I hope you enjoy and think about what I’ve said. You may not agree with it all but you can’t deny it all either. The problem is that I’m right. So am I saying I think the vast majority of the world is wrong and I am right? Yes. It’s not easy to be right when most everyone else is wrong. You’re constantly misunderstood or dismissed. No I haven’t lost it. I’m totally sane. Maybe the most sane I’ve ever been. That probably sounds crazy and maybe it is but if this is crazy I don’t ever want to be sane again.
It’s all of it. It’s not just black or white it’s gray. It’s a mix of the major competing ideas and a cherry picking of the best of those ideas. It’s the new ideas that keep up with our time. There-in lies the solution to our problems. Compromise and use the best parts of the major competing ideas not just one or the other. Think about healthcare. We need both a public and private option. We can’t have just one. We need both. A public option for the poor or disenfranchised and a private option for the wealthy and those who can afford to get private insurance. Wet markets and factory farming will be the death of us if we don’t outlaw that shit worldwide as soon as possible. Yes this means less meat in our diets. Look at the data. This is actually good for us. Take climate change. We can’t just stop using fossil fuels tomorrow. We need to phase them out while figuring out how much we can burn without negatively effecting our environment and then allowing the poorest countries to continue using fossil fuels in the interim while they grow their economies to prearranged milestones where they must phase in renewables. Take capitalism. Our society’s trade platform. It must be a mix of capitalism with restraints and restrictions strategically implemented to thwart the worst parts of greed, corruption and pollution. Along with a public option for healthcare and education. It’s socialism and capitalism meshed together. Republican or Democrat? We need a third option. The ruling party. The party that uses the best parts of both ideas and dumps the junk bunk bullshit that drags us down. The tie breaking vote cast in favor of either side, whenever it is they happen to have the better idea. This ruling class is called the Digerati. Not my term. They need to be the deciding voice of reason because they see the world for what it is. They are already silently leading the world. They are the Facebooks the Googles the Microsofts the Ubers the Teslas. I could go on. The Expedias the Amazons, you get the point. They have seen that digital technology trumps old analog technology in almost every industry. They have come in and dominated the old with the new. Taking voting for instance. We need to offer all viable options to increase voter turnout and opportunity. That means in-person, mail-in, Internet, and smartphone via blockchain. Putin will rule us all if we don’t band together against him. Hopefully I’m wrong there and his overreach will be the death of him, but that’s for time to tell. It’s not just religion or atheism and nothing in between. It’s spirituality. No not the traditional Christian soul “spirit” bullshit. Nothing supernatural in the standard sense. It’s the interconnectedness of everything down to a basic atomic level that binds all things. The problem also lies in our broken criminal justice system and the for-profit prisons that lobby to keep it that way. It’s the NRA and the gun lobby stopping us from having common sense gun law and closing the purchase and tracking loopholes. It’s the corrupt gang of thugs called the police who kill innocent people on the regular with seemingly no ramifications. It’s the irrational and crooked stock market putting this false face on the economy but we don’t have any other simple numbers to base the complexity of the economy on so we deal with it. We let these Wall Street crooks live in their ivory towers laughing at us. Selling us bits of 1’s and 0’s in the cloud somewhere that we never actually own. If we did they’d give us all our proportion of the profits equivalent to the shares we own. It happens but rarely. It’s just as bullshit as the concept of paper money backed by the Fed and nothing else. Even gold, what’s that worth anyway? Seems to me something is only worth its weight in what it can do or provide. Gold has its uses and therefore has value but it’s still an inflated illusion. Not that bitcoin isn’t based on a similar illusion but it’s far superior to paper money. More important than just bitcoin is the blockchain technology itself. This is going to change the way we do everything. All the big companies and leaders already know what’s coming. It’s going to change banking, voting, critical infrastructure security, contract law, stock trading, real estate, healthcare, supply chain management, music and entertainment property rights and IP etc etc etc. I could list 40-50 major industries that will be impacted in a huge way by blockchain. All technology is growing faster and faster. Exponentially so. So fast we can’t comprehend it. The growth of AI and the invention of bitcoin are changing the world so fast you can’t even see it. My point is it’s all going to change very fast. This country is not long for this world if we don’t make some massive changes, and I mean quickly. No more assholes like Trump ever can be elected to such high offices. Never let the stupid overtake the enlightened again because of technicalities. All these crooked politicians need to go to jail. For life. To set the example for all time. This bullshit will not be tolerated. The Constitution has failed us. Just look at the dysfunction in the Congress and Senate and now the White House. We’ve had some clowns in office before but nothing this extreme. China is going to overtake the USA in digital and cryptocurrency as they are embracing the technology far more. Bitcoin is coming for your wallets so you better get onboard or get left behind. New digital millionaires and billionaires are being minted daily. The world is becoming increasingly more dangerous every day. The poor and the left-out are growing in numbers and it’s only going to get worse. Those who can see, I mean truly SEE what’s going on, will rule the world. Those who don’t see it will be pushed further and further down out of the middle class and into poverty. This is going to create great disparities of wealth beyond anything the world has seen in quite some time. Think India’s caste system on steroids. So what can we do? We can embrace the future. We get as much bitcoin as we can get our hands on as soon as possible before only the elite have access to one whole bitcoin. Don’t pick up the scraps. Make your own way now. Don’t let the asshats rule the world. The Trumps the Putins the Bolsonaros and the Boris Johnsons of the world can’t be left in power. They are destroying everything we know and love. There are major political changes happening right now that will negatively impact all of our lives. They are the fault of McConnell, Trump, all the judges he’s appointed, and the entire Republican establishment. The Democrats are only marginally better. We need to throw out our failed institutions and start over with lessons learned. We need to actually make a real separation of Church and State. No more muddy water. No more bullshit child rape organizations like the Catholic Church allowed to claim tax free status and then take PPP Loans from our tax dollars. If they are a business that can receive PPP then they can be taxed like one. And why isn’t the Pope in jail. If I was the lead architect for covering up thousands of child rapes you can bet your ass there would be an international warrant for my arrest but instead he’s treated like a top celebrity and revered by some as next to “God”. There is a better way. Now is the time to move forward with plans to right the ship. Arguably there has never been a better more apropos time than now. This pandemic has pushed our country to the brink of failure. We also probably need to think about a backup plan. A plan to create a new country with those who understand what’s really happening. I’m not sure what exactly that looks like. Maybe we secede California or Texas from the union. Maybe we let Bezos buy an African country and pay all of its citizens handsomely to leave. Then from there we start a new world order. Yes, I said new world order. The term we’ve all been taught to fear our whole lives. What does the status quo have to be so scared of that it’s brainwashed us all to be scared at the mention of a new world order. That idea is obviously huge and has its own complications. I’m not talking about microchipping everyone either. I’m talking about real freedom. We’ve given up our liberty in pursuit of safety. We given up honest governance in place of partisan wins. I don’t pretend to know the ultimate answer to all things. Just the formula. There are multiple possibilities. I don’t think there is only one way to skin this cat. We can get to the same outcome via many routes as long as the mission is clear. Do what makes the most logical sense and will actually work verses what is politically expedient. Be the solution.
submitted by imenotu8 to deepdiscussions [link] [comments]

Where can I post this to get exposure and feedback? I’ve been banned from big threads already and this is my 4th post on Reddit ever. I just want to start the discussion.

Save yourself some time and don’t read this. You’ll never get it, unless you do. In which case I hope you enjoy and think about what I’ve said. You may not agree with it all but you can’t deny it all either. The problem is that I’m right. So am I saying I think the vast majority of the world is wrong and I am right? Yes. It’s not easy to be right when most everyone else is wrong. You’re constantly misunderstood or dismissed. No I haven’t lost it. I’m totally sane. Maybe the most sane I’ve ever been. That probably sounds crazy and maybe it is but if this is crazy I don’t ever want to be sane again.
It’s all of it. It’s not just black or white it’s gray. It’s a mix of the major competing ideas and a cherry picking of the best of those ideas. It’s the new ideas that keep up with our time. There-in lies the solution to our problems. Compromise and use the best parts of the major competing ideas not just one or the other. Think about healthcare. We need both a public and private option. We can’t have just one. We need both. A public option for the poor or disenfranchised and a private option for the wealthy and those who can afford to get private insurance. Wet markets and factory farming will be the death of us if we don’t outlaw that shit worldwide as soon as possible. Yes this means less meat in our diets. Look at the data. This is actually good for us. Take climate change. We can’t just stop using fossil fuels tomorrow. We need to phase them out while figuring out how much we can burn without negatively effecting our environment and then allowing the poorest countries to continue using fossil fuels in the interim while they grow their economies to prearranged milestones where they must phase in renewables. Take capitalism. Our society’s trade platform. It must be a mix of capitalism with restraints and restrictions strategically implemented to thwart the worst parts of greed, corruption and pollution. Along with a public option for healthcare and education. It’s socialism and capitalism meshed together. Republican or Democrat? We need a third option. The ruling party. The party that uses the best parts of both ideas and dumps the junk bunk bullshit that drags us down. The tie breaking vote cast in favor of either side, whenever it is they happen to have the better idea. This ruling class is called the Digerati. Not my term. They need to be the deciding voice of reason because they see the world for what it is. They are already silently leading the world. They are the Facebooks the Googles the Microsofts the Ubers the Teslas. I could go on. The Expedias the Amazons, you get the point. They have seen that digital technology trumps old analog technology in almost every industry. They have come in and dominated the old with the new. Taking voting for instance. We need to offer all viable options to increase voter turnout and opportunity. That means in-person, mail-in, Internet, and smartphone via blockchain. Putin will rule us all if we don’t band together against him. Hopefully I’m wrong there and his overreach will be the death of him, but that’s for time to tell. It’s not just religion or atheism and nothing in between. It’s spirituality. No not the traditional Christian soul “spirit” bullshit. Nothing supernatural in the standard sense. It’s the interconnectedness of everything down to a basic atomic level that binds all things. The problem also lies in our broken criminal justice system and the for-profit prisons that lobby to keep it that way. It’s the NRA and the gun lobby stopping us from having common sense gun law and closing the purchase and tracking loopholes. It’s the corrupt gang of thugs called the police who kill innocent people on the regular with seemingly no ramifications. It’s the irrational and crooked stock market putting this false face on the economy but we don’t have any other simple numbers to base the complexity of the economy on so we deal with it. We let these Wall Street crooks live in their ivory towers laughing at us. Selling us bits of 1’s and 0’s in the cloud somewhere that we never actually own. If we did they’d give us all our proportion of the profits equivalent to the shares we own. It happens but rarely. It’s just as bullshit as the concept of paper money backed by the Fed and nothing else. Even gold, what’s that worth anyway? Seems to me something is only worth its weight in what it can do or provide. Gold has its uses and therefore has value but it’s still an inflated illusion. Not that bitcoin isn’t based on a similar illusion but it’s far superior to paper money. More important than just bitcoin is the blockchain technology itself. This is going to change the way we do everything. All the big companies and leaders already know what’s coming. It’s going to change banking, voting, critical infrastructure security, contract law, stock trading, real estate, healthcare, supply chain management, music and entertainment property rights and IP etc etc etc. I could list 40-50 major industries that will be impacted in a huge way by blockchain. All technology is growing faster and faster. Exponentially so. So fast we can’t comprehend it. The growth of AI and the invention of bitcoin are changing the world so fast you can’t even see it. My point is it’s all going to change very fast. This country is not long for this world if we don’t make some massive changes, and I mean quickly. No more assholes like Trump ever can be elected to such high offices. Never let the stupid overtake the enlightened again because of technicalities. All these crooked politicians need to go to jail. For life. To set the example for all time. This bullshit will not be tolerated. The Constitution has failed us. Just look at the dysfunction in the Congress and Senate and now the White House. We’ve had some clowns in office before but nothing this extreme. China is going to overtake the USA in digital and cryptocurrency as they are embracing the technology far more. Bitcoin is coming for your wallets so you better get onboard or get left behind. New digital millionaires and billionaires are being minted daily. The world is becoming increasingly more dangerous every day. The poor and the left-out are growing in numbers and it’s only going to get worse. Those who can see, I mean truly SEE what’s going on, will rule the world. Those who don’t see it will be pushed further and further down out of the middle class and into poverty. This is going to create great disparities of wealth beyond anything the world has seen in quite some time. Think India’s caste system on steroids. So what can we do? We can embrace the future. We get as much bitcoin as we can get our hands on as soon as possible before only the elite have access to one whole bitcoin. Don’t pick up the scraps. Make your own way now. Don’t let the asshats rule the world. The Trumps the Putins the Bolsonaros and the Boris Johnsons of the world can’t be left in power. They are destroying everything we know and love. There are major political changes happening right now that will negatively impact all of our lives. They are the fault of McConnell, Trump, all the judges he’s appointed, and the entire Republican establishment. The Democrats are only marginally better. We need to throw out our failed institutions and start over with lessons learned. We need to actually make a real separation of Church and State. No more muddy water. No more bullshit child rape organizations like the Catholic Church allowed to claim tax free status and then take PPP Loans from our tax dollars. If they are a business that can receive PPP then they can be taxed like one. And why isn’t the Pope in jail. If I was the lead architect for covering up thousands of child rapes you can bet your ass there would be an international warrant for my arrest but instead he’s treated like a top celebrity and revered by some as next to “God”. There is a better way. Now is the time to move forward with plans to right the ship. Arguably there has never been a better more apropos time than now. This pandemic has pushed our country to the brink of failure. We also probably need to think about a backup plan. A plan to create a new country with those who understand what’s really happening. I’m not sure what exactly that looks like. Maybe we secede California or Texas from the union. Maybe we let Bezos buy an African country and pay all of its citizens handsomely to leave. Then from there we start a new world order. Yes, I said new world order. The term we’ve all been taught to fear our whole lives. What does the status quo have to be so scared of that it’s brainwashed us all to be scared at the mention of a new world order. That idea is obviously huge and has its own complications. I’m not talking about microchipping everyone either. I’m talking about real freedom. We’ve given up our liberty in pursuit of safety. We given up honest governance in place of partisan wins. I don’t pretend to know the ultimate answer to all things. Just the formula. There are multiple possibilities. I don’t think there is only one way to skin this cat. We can get to the same outcome via many routes as long as the mission is clear. Do what makes the most logical sense and will actually work verses what is politically expedient. Be the solution.
submitted by imenotu8 to DeepConversation [link] [comments]

Let's be honest, we **all** care about price. So why do we never discuss valuation?

Valuation, not price. Is it to keep others in the dark, so the cycle of shilling continues? It's confusing to me, because everyone keeps saying 'this coin is undervalued', or 'that coin is overvalued' and then, when asked to back up their claims, they go on listing items on the project's roadmap or talking about the team.
I realize that many of you probably don't know what a valuation model is or why it works (to some extent, it's never perfect). Valuation models are especially useful in detecting whether a business (nearly all 2nd and 3rd gen cryptocurrencies are backed by business-like entities) is viable and using multiple different models will tend to yield some kind of 'reasonable range' for a project's market capitalization. If it's under, chances are that it's being underestimated (for cryptocurrencies, that chance is still very low, the entire industry is nascent and we are still in bubble territory). For example, let's take a SaaS (Software as a Service) company. Its most important metrics will likely be:
  1. Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC): the dollar amount the company needs to spend to gain a new customer. This is usually done via various marketing efforts, reputation/word of mouth or direct sales efforts.
  2. Customer Lifetime Value (CLTV): the total expected value our SaaS company can expect from an average customer over the course of their lifetime. By lifetime, we don't mean the client's actual lifespan, but rather the time they'll remain customers.
  3. Market size: the total size (in dollars) of the market the company is in. The bigger it is, the more potential the company has in terms of growth.
  4. Market penetration: the current share of the market the company currently captures.
If our company has a high CAC/CLTV ratio and poor market penetration, even if its market is ENORMOUS and their offering is good, it's unlikely to make a good investment. Growing would simply be too expensive. This is the same for cryptocurrencies. In my opinion, we need to think about valuation in this order:
  1. Philosophy: What is 'x' coin's vision for the future? Is it achievable? Why or why not? We don't go into technical details here, but rather simply examine the leading group/company/foundation/community's plan moving forward. If there are none, you should instantly become extremely skeptical. Right away, this exposes a type of project I personally consider malicious: clones. Bitcoin, Ethereum and other original projects' clones essentially never have a standalone vision. They rely on the reputation and promises of the original.
  2. Value distribution: Let's assume a team's grand vision is exciting, that it makes sense from a business and even tech perspective. How does that team intend to share value created? Most projects simply rely on having their token act as a currency, which is both lazy and dangerous, because it relies on a) high adoption levels, so a self-sustaining economy is created and b) lack of worthy competitors. Do you honestly think that, in the future, there'll be hundreds of economic micro-pockets that require their own currency?
  3. Technology: In concrete scientific terms, how is your project attempting to achieve its grand vision? This is where comparisons like network structure, hashing algorithms, throughput and others are relevant and yes, it only comes third on my list. Technology is a means to an end, not an end itself.
  4. Connections: What are the actors that will allow our technology to flourish? Are strategic partnerships needed? Will end users even be aware that they're using our technology? Partners are a sign of legitimacy, but that's just the beginning. Each and every cryptocurrency that exists today needs an ecosystem to surround it, for the sake of its liquidity, the realization of its use cases, etc.
Until we start creating and discussing valuation formulas, until we start extensively mapping our own vision of a post-DLT (distributed ledger technology) world as a community and calling out people who isolate facts to inflate the value of their own investment and shoot down competitors, we will not grow. We will certainly not help crypto become mainstream, either. The majority waits for safety and clarity before jumping on board, and we're here talking about sharding and audit trails in a vacuum, despite less than 10% of the space really understanding anything about it. We must work on the big picture, and it starts with trying to understand value.
submitted by bLbGoldeN to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Risk Management in Crypto Trading

Risk Management in Crypto Trading
Author: Gamals Ahmed, CoinEx Business Ambassador
Financial risk management is one of the most controversial topics in trading. Traders want to reduce the risk and potential loss, but on the other hand, these traders also want at the same time to get the best profits. It is known that in order to obtain greater returns, you also need to take greater risks.
Some may consider trading an entertaining and difficult pastime, but everyone should be aware that the most important aspect of trading is risk management.

What are the different risk management techniques used in trading?

Long-term trading
Stock market traders use historical data to make long-term strategic business decisions. The long-term cryptocurrency strategy depends on current activity, and you will be more inclined towards hopeful information rather than reliable information and more suitable for cryptocurrencies.
Short term trading
Short-term traders benefit from the volatile cryptocurrency market by using swing trading when the price differs in short bursts of movement.
Technical Analysis
Technical analysis of cryptocurrencies requires research into project that affect the market based on price and volume data available through analytical technology.
Fundamental analysis
Traders often look to blogs and information sites and study the whitepaper for cryptocurrencies or cryptocurrency community forums.
https://preview.redd.it/bcdhftsba0351.jpg?width=864&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4763c03a2d5ecaa082cfa78ed3693c0d7e1186e0

Why should you stick to risk management?

You can get a series of successful deals based on good luck. You can also get a series of bad deals that depend on luck and feel.
It even happens to successful, experienced professional traders that they lose 10 trades in a row. Without risk management, this could result in your capital loss and final exit. The most important goal in trading is to stay in the market and preserve your capital. As long as you are in the market, you can recoup your losses.
If you lose 10% of your capital, this means that you must make a profit of 11.1%. If your budget is $ 1,000 and you lose $ 100 ( ~ to 10%), you’ll have $ 900. $ 100 is 11.1% of that.
This means that losses hurt more than profits of the same size. This becomes worse with more losses. If you lose 50% of your capital, you must double your money to offset the loss.
The new trader’s rule for managing at most risk is 1% of the capital for each trade. If you lose 10 deals in a row (which is unlikely) and lose 1% each time, how much do you have left? Still 90%.
If you risk 2%, what remains for you after losing 10 recurring deals is only 81% of the capital. You have to make 11% or 23% profit to make up for it. Even if you lose 100 deals in a row with a 1% risk management plan in hand, you still have 37%.
A seasoned trader may use 2% occasionally. A trader who risks 10% disappears quickly.
You might be wondering, if I decide to follow risk management with just 1% in the deal, does this mean that I can only invest 1% of the capital for each transaction? No. This is the ratio for determining the maximum acceptance of a loss from a single trade.
Initial decisions
I assume you know your total capital, no matter if it is $ 100 or $ 1 billion. The main point is to have a specific budget available. Do not use borrowed money, which you have to repay in a deadline. Do not use money you need in the future. If you are emotionally attached to this money, these emotions will make you feel stressed. You want to be a successful trader and not an emotional gambler.
The next step is to find a deal. It does not matter if you do this daily and trade specific currencies or not. You have tools like fundamental and technical analysis to research deals. Immediately before entering into a trade, there is a basic calculation that must be performed:
Determine the entry price, stop loss and the amount of risk.
Well, the risk is easy. We already know that we will choose 1%.
The entry price is also easy. It could be the current market price or the limit you set for your order.
Now, stop loss: it is necessary to know and set the stop loss before entering a trade. Another rule is that you are not allowed to adjust your stop loss afterward to accept more losses.
How to determine the stop loss? Technical analysis is the only method available regardless of the random selection of something. Perhaps you will use something like “beyond the next support level (or resistance)” or “the other side of the trend line we just broke”.
Now we have the four components of risk management: budget size, entry price, stop-loss and risk-taking. The time to use the calculator.
The size of the deal
Now to find out how much money you are allowed to invest in this deal.
Transaction Size = (Risk Size * Budget) / (Entry Price — Stop Loss)
For example: If you have a budget $ 1,000 and want to buy bitcoin for $ 2,300 with a stop loss $ 2,200 and a risk 1%, then this means: The deal size is (1% * $ 1,000) / ($ 2,300 — $ 2,200) ) = $ 10 / $ 100 = 0.1.
So in this example you are allowed to buy 0.1 Bitcoin units for this trade.
You must make this account before every trade! Even if you do, you will encounter errors sometimes, but risk management will help you to preserve your capital. Courage will shout at you to take greater risks, because you are very sure of your prediction. But always remember, to succeed you must stick to your stop loss and strategy.
Setting goals
Before entering into a position, you must also have a target price in mind for sale. The risk must be doubled. If you risk 1% of your capital, the potential profit must be 2–3% of your capital. If the goal for profit is equal to stopping the loss, you must stay away from trading and ignore this deal.
This does not mean that you will always reach or lose your goal. You are allowed to manually track stop loss or exit early. However, the goal should be possible given the volatility of the market you are in.
Level of risk
Well, I got away from the plan and ignored your strategy. The deal entered without due diligence. whatever. How much risk did you just take?
You know your budget, entry price and deal size. You must quickly define the next stop loss. How much risk?
Risk = (Trade Size * (Entry Point — Stop Loss)) / Budget
For example, I bought 0.3 bitcoin at a price of $ 2,500 with a budget of $ 1,000. Stop loss is $ 2345. This means that the risk is (0.3 * 155 dollars) / 1000 dollars = 4.64%.
Risk reduction
Now for some good things that can’t be used practically, however, the concepts are sound. Why the reader may ask 1% risk? Is it just a rule? Is there an ideal ratio? In theory, yes there is. We can use the Kelly standard. The formula is simple:
Risk = p-((1-p)/r
Getting those variables P and R is difficult. You have to know your profit rate, which is the number of times your goals are reached. You also need a profit-to-loss ratio, which is the average profit per trade.
For example, if you earn 47% of the time and 117% of your average capital, then the ideal risk is 1.7%.
In practice you don’t really know this specifically or variables p and r, so I recommend sticking to 1% as the basis for risk management.

Risk Management Tips for Cryptocurrency Investment

1. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose.
However, this error is very common, especially among Crypto traders who are just starting out. The Crypto market is very difficult to predict, so traders who want to invest more than they can actually put themselves at risk of market and losing their money.
2. Don’t trade by all of your capital at same time.
Anything can affect the Crypto market. The smallest news can affect the price of a particular currency in a negative or positive way. Instead of trade with everything you own”, it is better to follow a more moderate path and trade reasonable amounts of your capital.
3. Improve your risk management performance
Fortunately, there are several ways to help avoiding these mistakes and avoid loss. You must have a well-tested trading plan that includes all the details of managing financial risk in Crypto. The trading plan should be practical — and you should be able to follow its steps easily. Experts recommend that it is better to focus on high-probability deals.
Crypto trading involves a high degree of risk, so it is essential that you be disciplined in all of your financial transactions. You should also be able to pay extra attention to your past mistakes, and practice trading activities in a demo account first. The time and effort you spend in creating a trading plan is often considered a major investment that helps you achieve a profit-able future.
4. Control your emotions and risk management
As a Crypto trader, you need to be able to control your feelings and emotions towards your open, future, and closed positions as well! If you cannot control your feelings, you will not be able to reach a position where you can make the profits you want to trade. Market sentiment can often trap traders in volatile positions in the market. This is one of the most common market risk for Crypto trading. Those with stubborn nature tend not to do well in the Crypto market.
These types of traders tend to wait too long to exit the trade. When a trader realizes his mistake, he must leave the market as soon as possible, to take the least possible loss. Waiting too long can cause you to lose a large portion of your capital. Once you exit the deal, you need to be patient and re-enter the market when it presents a real new opportunity.
5. Basic concepts in risk management
To reduce the financial market risk for trading Cryptocurrency, you will need to remember some of the basic points mentioned below:
The evaluation of money changes, and often affects companies and individuals participating in global stock exchanges.
Liabilities, assets and fund flows are affected by changes in exchange rates.
By trading small amounts of your capital and monitoring market movements, you will be able to see these concepts take hold throughout your daily trading sessions.
6. Important tips for developing a risk management plan model
Below is a series of simple tips that you can consider and include in the financial risk management plan model when trading Crypto, which may help you reduce trading losses associated with market risks:
1. Stop losses
Trading without a stop loss is like driving a car without braking at full speed — it won’t end well. Likewise, once your stop loss is set, you should never lower it. There is no point in having a safety net in place if you are not going to use it properly.
The goal of stopping a loss is to limit the size of the potential loss in order to be able to in-crease your total profits, and what needs to be done on the other side is to set profit-taking orders as well!
2. Do not link all your investments in one place
This applies to all types of investment, and Crypto is no exception. Crypto should be part of your portfolio, but not complete it. Another way that you can expand it is to invest or trade more than one crypto coin.
3. The general trend is your companion
You may have made the decision to be a long-term trader, with plans to keep these deals for an extended period of time. However, regardless of the deal you ultimately decided to take, you should not resist current market trends or movements. There will always be strong players in the market, and the best way to keep up with them is to absorb such changes and follow the general trend, and change your strategies to reflect this.
4. Keep teaching yourself
The best way to learn the financial risk management system in Crypto and become an efficient and successful Crypto trader is to know how the market works. However, as we mentioned earlier, the market is constantly changing, so if you want to stay ahead of your game, you have to be always ready to learn new things and update yourself about market changes.
5. Use the plug-in
To advance in Crypto, you may want to use some trading software that can help you settle your choices. However, these systems are not ideal, so it is best to use them as a consulting tool, and something to refer to rather than use as a basis for making business decisions.
6. Limiting the use of leverage
It can be very tempting to use leverage to make big profits. However, this can make it easy for you to lose a huge portion of your capital, too. So do not support the use of giant leverage. All it takes is one quick change in market direction, and you can easily delete your entire trading account.
Crypto risk management is not difficult to understand and implement. But in order to invest in any financial instruments, whether it be bonds, exchange-traded funds, stocks, contracts for the difference in prices or cryptocurrencies, you need to acquire advanced knowledge in the field of risk management. The hard part is having enough self-discipline to adhere to the rules of this risk management plan as the market moves against your positions.
The content is for opinion sharing only and should not be relied upon to make any investment decisions.
submitted by CoinEx_Institution to Coinex [link] [comments]

Are Pricey Crypto Publications like Palm Beach a substitution for a Crypto Mentor?

Why Having a MENTOR in Crypto is Very Important
For the past couple of years I have been sharing the exorbitant costs of the Palm Beach newsletter services with a few other people. But what started off as a simple share of the costs of these publications has actually turned into me being a teacher or counselor in the space to many who are completely new to the world of cryptocurrency.
A bit about me:
As someone who has been buying bitcoin since early 2014 I became the ipso facto ‘crypto expert’ among my friends and new newsletter shares. People came to me with all types of questions which I had taken for granted since I had long ago been through the learning curve required to make me highly proficient at navigating the complex waters of cryptocurrency.
It was at this time that I realized just how difficult crypto currency can be for most people. Many things I took for granted are not actually that simple. I’ve gotten questions all over the board over the years: “how do I buy bitcoin?” - or “How do I send it now that I have it”. “What’s a crypto wallet?” “what are the best exchanges to use?”, “what does ERC-20 mean?” …and on and on and on. I realized that things that I took for granted were actually very real concerns and struggles for people. So I became a teacher of sorts to those who needed help getting their footing established in the wild west of crypto, and instead of being someone who simply shared the costs of pricey publications I ended up being a mentor, an ally, and a friend to many of these people.
Here are a few things I’ve noticed over the years:
Most of the mistakes people make are done early on as they are trying to get set up. There are many traps out there to part you with your money. Fly by night exchanges…or even bogus exchanges, people promising you educational courses that turn out to be worthless drivel and many people online telling you which coins to buy hyping things so much because they want YOU to buy their bags - not to make you rich. I once had a friend google a crypto exchange customer service number. The number wasn’t real but a spoof website in a paid search result which connected her to a scammer who proceeded to steal her $8,000 worth of bitcoin in about 30 seconds. Poof! Gone!
What’s important when you are first new to crypto is to realize that everyone has an agenda and most of the time it’s not a mutually beneficial one. This is the wild wild west! You better have your wits about you, and be quick on the draw - otherwise you’ll blink and suddenly find yourself penniless.
But even good guys have an agenda. I know I do! But mine is more altruistic and designed to be “mutually beneficial”. See, I’m hoping to gain some of your trust to have a conversation so that you’ll allow me to be your ally and mentor in the space - giving me the chance to share both my knowledge and the Palm Beach publications (quarterly or confidential - or others) that you want. Like most value adding things in life it starts with a profit motive; capitalism at its purest. But the best business is also the business which helps solve problems. And that is what I am attempting to do here - to connect with a few people that I can add value and insights to.
Swimming with Sharks or the Land of Milk and Honey?:
With that said cypto is full of some of the slimiest people on earth. Scammers and frauds in boiler rooms in India or Pakistan or China trying to take advantage of your naiveté. It is what it is. Welcome to crypto. But crypto is also the new land of opportunity- a land where you can stake a claim and strike gold, or watch oil just gushing out of the ground. So, yes it can be a wonderful place too! Some of the best people I know I’ve met through my cryptocurrency connections and projects I have become passionate about. Many of these are freedom loving people acutely aware that many things aren’t right in the world and many things need to be changed. We love profit combined with the ideological purity of what crypto is at its core, and usually find agreement in the fact that crypto offers many solutions to a world begging for a paradigm shift towards more honesty and integrity in a broken world full of corrupt systems and cronyism.
But where do you turn for the advice if you are an outsider looking into this fascinating new world and the possibilities that it presents? Do you go to youtube? Do you run to a computer and start googling bitcoin? Will your smart Uncle Joe be able to help you? Certainly, there is a lot of information you can glean our there on your own if you are industrious and persistent. But these are also shark infested waters, and as I said earlier - nearly everyone has an agenda. Usually, as a newbie in crypto you are the “mark” - or as poker players would say; “the fish” at the table. Everyone will welcome you to grab a seat and offer you a smoke… getting you extremely comfortable, before taking your money leaving you wondering what the hell just happened?!
Are you the Customer or “the mark”?
Sadly, many of the latest and greatest crypto publications have also gone the route of the hustler at the poker table. They get you to empty your pockets to enter into the game - and then later they hold you by your ankles and shake you until anything left comes spilling out onto the ground. It’s a brutal world for sure. How many of you are aware that the moment you sign up for Palm Beach (for one example) the next week or even day they will be hitting you up to sign up for yet another multi-thousand dollar subscription service with them or one of their partners like Bonner and Associates or Legacy Research Group? Don’t believe me? Sign up and find out!
To me this is greed at its highest and most perverse level. They claim to want to “help” you become one of the nouveau rich - and they charge a literally boat load of money for the information to do so. The information is very good even! But then just days later you will find out that your information is “incomplete” - and that what you really need to do is to buy this “other” publication which shows you a more nuanced (and shhhh, also secret formula ) to really getting those profits you crave sooner - only even much bigger profits this time - in another sector - oh by the way this will only cost you another $2,500 or $1,500. Really? Are they looking out for their customers or more interested in bleeding them out like pigs? I’d say clearly the latter.
Time for a more Holistic Approach:
For the reasons above I have committed myself to being a crypto mentor and friend in the space - but as a business. As a bonus to signing up with me as your friend and mentor in the space I’ll share with you the publications. This way you help me cover the costs and I help you get what you want; the pricey information. Only I do better by you - in offering you my hand in expertise and kinship and getting your cost greatly reduced at the same time. It’s a no brainer for you really.
Keep in mind I have ALL the Palm Beach publications you could want; (Palm Beach Confidential, Crypto Income Quarterly, Palm Beach Trader, Alpha Edge, Palm Beach Quant ) and also the lesser known and unrelated Crypto Vigilante of Dollar Vigilante fame (a very underrated publication imo). And you get someone who understands crypto and the crypto markets at a fairly high level - someone with the 10,000+ hours put into the space since 2014 to make me not only highly proficient - but arguably an “expert” in the field.
If you were going to get the $75 rib-eye - wouldn’t the same steak taste even better at $25 - $50 while also having 3 sides (and fancy drinks) included? Your choice. This is what I’m offering you.
I have a videos showing me in all my splendor (lol) and trying to communicate who I am, and what I can do for you. I am currently offering a few levels of memberships to my mentorship and expertise and the publications and info you want. So why not have a brief talk about it? Drop me a line in direct message here (not in the public thread below) - and I’ll get you over the full monty of details regarding signing up with me and getting immediate access to the publications and my brain. ; )
I’ll even send you that private video of me first so you can decide if I’m the type of person you might want to do business with. I look forward to hearing from you! Drop me that message and please leave a brief note of what exactly you might be interested in. Thanks!
Proverbs 15:22 - Without counsel purposes are disappointed: but in the multitude of counsellors they are established
submitted by remotelyfun to CoinBase [link] [comments]

Why Having a MENTOR in Crypto is Very Important

Why Having a MENTOR in Crypto is Very Important
For the past couple of years I have been sharing the exorbitant costs of the Palm Beach newsletter services with a few other people. But what started off as a simple share of the costs of these publications has actually turned into me being a teacher or counselor in the space to many who are completely new to the world of cryptocurrency.
A bit about me:
As someone who has been buying bitcoin since early 2014 I became the ipso facto ‘crypto expert’ among my friends and new newsletter shares. People came to me with all types of questions which I had taken for granted since I had long ago been through the learning curve required to make me highly proficient at navigating the complex waters of cryptocurrency.
It was at this time that I realized just how difficult crypto currency can be for most people. Many things I took for granted are not actually that simple. I’ve gotten questions all over the board over the years: “how do I buy bitcoin?” - or “How do I send it now that I have it”. “What’s a crypto wallet?” “what are the best exchanges to use?”, “what does ERC-20 mean?” …and on and on and on. I realized that things that I took for granted were actually very real concerns and struggles for people. So I became a teacher of sorts to those who needed help getting their footing established in the wild west of crypto, and instead of being someone who simply shared the costs of pricey publications I ended up being a mentor, an ally, and a friend to many of these people.
Here are a few things I’ve noticed over the years:
Most of the mistakes people make are done early on as they are trying to get set up. There are many traps out there to part you with your money. Fly by night exchanges…or even bogus exchanges, people promising you educational courses that turn out to be worthless drivel and many people online telling you which coins to buy hyping things so much because they want YOU to buy their bags - not to make you rich. I once had a friend google a crypto exchange customer service number. The number wasn’t real but a spoof website in a paid search result which connected her to a scammer who proceeded to steal her $8,000 worth of bitcoin in about 30 seconds. Poof! Gone!
What’s important when you are first new to crypto is to realize that everyone has an agenda and most of the time it’s not a mutually beneficial one. This is the wild wild west! You better have your wits about you, and be quick on the draw - otherwise you’ll blink and suddenly find yourself penniless.
But even good guys have an agenda. I know I do! But mine is more altruistic and designed to be “mutually beneficial”. See, I’m hoping to gain some of your trust to have a conversation so that you’ll allow me to be your ally and mentor in the space - giving me the chance to share both my knowledge and the publications you want. Like most value adding things in life it starts with a profit motive; capitalism at its purest. But the best business is also the business which helps solve problems. And that is what I am attempting to do here - to connect with a few people that I can add value and insights to.
Swimming with Sharks or the Land of Milk and Honey?:
With that said cypto is full of some of the slimiest people on earth. Scammers and frauds in boiler rooms in India or Pakistan or China trying to take advantage of your naiveté. It is what it is. Welcome to crypto. But crypto is also the new land of opportunity- a land where you can stake a claim and strike gold, or watch oil just gushing out of the ground. So, yes it can be a wonderful place too! Some of the best people I know I’ve met through my cryptocurrency connections and projects I have become passionate about. Many of these are freedom loving people acutely aware that many things aren’t right in the world and many things need to be changed. We love profit combined with the ideological purity of what crypto is at its core, and usually find agreement in the fact that crypto offers many solutions to a world begging for a paradigm shift towards more honesty and integrity in a broken world full of corrupt systems and cronyism.
But where do you turn for the advice if you are an outsider looking into this fascinating new world and the possibilities that it presents? Do you go to youtube? Do you run to a computer and start googling bitcoin? Will your smart Uncle Joe be able to help you? Certainly, there is a lot of information you can glean our there on your own if you are industrious and persistent. But these are also shark infested waters, and as I said earlier - nearly everyone has an agenda. Usually, as a newbie in crypto you are the “mark” - or as poker players would say; “the fish” at the table. Everyone will welcome you to grab a seat and offer you a smoke… getting you extremely comfortable, before taking your money leaving you wondering what the hell just happened?!
Are you the Customer or “the mark”?
Sadly, many of the latest and greatest crypto publications have also gone the route of the hustler at the poker table. They get you to empty your pockets to enter into the game - and then later they hold you by your ankles and shake you until anything left comes spilling out onto the ground. It’s a brutal world for sure. How many of you are aware that the moment you sign up for Palm Beach (for one example) the next week or even day they will be hitting you up to sign up for yet another multi-thousand dollar subscription service with them or one of their partners like Bonner and Associates or Legacy Research Group? Don’t believe me? Sign up and find out!
To me this is greed at its highest and most perverse level. They claim to want to “help” you become one of the nouveau rich - and they charge a literally boat load of money for the information to do so. The information is very good even! But then just days later you will find out that your information is “incomplete” - and that what you really need to do is to buy this “other” publication which shows you a more nuanced (and shhhh, also secret formula ) to really getting those profits you crave sooner - only even much bigger profits this time - in another sector - oh by the way this will only cost you another $2,500 or $1,500. Really? Are they looking out for their customers or more interested in bleeding them out like pigs? I’d say clearly the latter.
Time for a more Holistic Approach:
For the reasons above I have committed myself to being a crypto mentor and friend in the space - but as a business. As a bonus to signing up with me as your friend and mentor in the space I’ll share with you the publications. This way you help me cover the costs and I help you get what you want; the pricey information. Only I do better by you - in offering you my hand in expertise and kinship and getting your cost greatly reduced at the same time. It’s a no brainer for you really.
Keep in mind I have ALL the Palm Beach publications you could want; (Palm Beach Confidential, Crypto Income Quarterly, Palm Beach Trader, Alpha Edge, Palm Beach Quant ) and also the lesser known and unrelated Crypto Vigilante of Dollar Vigilante fame (a very underrated publication imo). And you get someone who understands crypto and the crypto markets at a fairly high level - someone with the 10,000+ hours put into the space since 2014 to make me not only highly proficient - but arguably an “expert” in the field.
If you were going to get the $75 rib-eye - wouldn’t the same steak taste even better at $25 - $50 while also having 3 sides (and fancy drinks) included? Your choice. This is what I’m offering you.
I have a videos showing me in all my splendor (lol) and trying to communicate who I am, and what I can do for you. I am currently offering a few levels of memberships to my mentorship and expertise and the publications and info you want. So why not have a brief talk about it? Drop me a line in direct message here (not in the public thread below) - and I’ll get you over the full monty of details regarding signing up with me and getting immediate access to the publications and my brain. ; )
I’ll even send you that private video of me first so you can decide if I’m the type of person you might want to do business with. I look forward to hearing from you! Drop me that message and please leave a brief note of what exactly you might be interested in. You can do that here on Reddit or at: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) Thanks!
Proverbs 15:22 - Without counsel purposes are disappointed: but in the multitude of counsellors they are established.

palm beach confidential, teeka tiwari, crypto income quarterly, crypto teacher, crypto learning, learn bitcoin, cryptocurrency class
submitted by remotelyfun to u/remotelyfun [link] [comments]

Review of 5 Coins to 5 Million - Palm Beach Confidential

[ Removed by reddit in response to a copyright notice. ]
submitted by remotelyfun to u/remotelyfun [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Market Cycle: Headed Towards Point of Maximum Financial Opportunity

Author: CoinLive News Team Jun 18, 2018 at 12:47
(Click the link to visualize the article from the original source)
There are many venues one can venture when it comes to analyzing the state of affairs in a particular market. However, from a psychological perspective, it is human nature to see repetitive patterns play out over and over. In this article, we want to bring to the readers' attention the psychology behind a market cycle, how it tends to trick one's emotions, and what stage the crypto space might be at.

Understanding the Psychology of a Market Cycle

Credit goes to Karen Bennett, writer at cheatsheet.com, whose chart (below) on the psychology of a market cycle has become an absolute classic to explain the different emotional phases of any volatile market. The chart illustrates the type of feelings and sentiment traders and investors alike experience as the price fluctuates. These inevitable human emotions, coupled with market fundamentals, help to explain the price dynamics and what we should expect based on the type of emotional phase we project to be in.
In this article, we will attempt to draw some parallels between the chart of Bitcoin and the psychological cycles investors go through as described by Karen Bennett. Let's, first of all, explore the chart below and extract a few insights out of it. It is of cardinal importance to always be reminded that markets go through periods of expansion and contraction, which describes the times where the market alternates between trending in a defined direction and moving sideways. This phenomenon can be extrapolated to multiple facets of our lives (thermal, matter, solid, liquids...).
It is during the periods of most contraction that the majority of the market crowd will leave by selling their holding (weak-handed players) to those that are interested in buying to accumulate at what is perceived as attractive prices. The contraction of the market partly occurs due to the compressive effect of those strong-handed players absorbing selling orders.
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/1000/content_psychology_cycles.png)

Applying Market Cycle Psychology to Bitcoin & Market Cap

By comparing the psychology of market moves and its emotions to the rollercoaster seen in Bitcoin ever since its peak from its irrationally exuberant rally from Dec-Jan, we have taken the initiative to draw what we believe could be some common parallels that may provide some extra insights about the potential market phase we might be at, as perceived by market participants. In our opinion, a period of depression, which leads up to disbelief might be the most accurate terrain we find ourselves at this moment in time, especially after the harsh sell-off resumption seen ever since mid-May.
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/1003/content_btc01.png)
We can best define this period as the one that sees a consistent loss of hope, with investors no longer expecting a significant upward correction in the near future that may get them out of the deep hole they find themselves in. A significant portion of market participants give up on the idea that their capital has been wisely invested. We seem to have entered a phase where investors aim to save whatever funds left in desperation even if they realize that cutting the losses for whatever capital is left will still represent a major setback.
This phase leads to a potential paradigm shift in their belief about the underlying fundamentals that they first considered so disruptive, or they simply come to the realization that the only reason they invested was out of an adrenaline-led hype vs a proper understanding of the technology and its revolutionary consequences to advance society as we know it. This loss in the overall interest keeps prices at depressed levels, which tends to coincide, at times, with the lowest point in the current cycle.
Stable prices in a compressed range tend to follow, in what might be an arduous and torturous stage lasting quite some time before a new bullish trend re-emerges. Note how the ATR has been consistently compressing since the peak, which suggests we are gradually heading towards the compression phase and point of maximum financial opportunity.

Keep in Mind Return to the 'Mean'

Another critical component to understand is the term "return to the mean". Given that the price of Bitcoin is now way below the most widely followed moving averages (5, 100, 200-Daily Moving Average), one could apply the usefulness of drawing trending lines to estimate where the fair value or mean may be located. Note, different interpretations (lines drawn) should be considered.
By connecting the most number of highs /lows from various price sequences, we come up with at least 3 different trendlines that serve as an estimate to calculate where the market may perceive the mean or fair value of Bitcoin. No one can really tell whether the first green box is the one the market is paying most attention to (follow volumes for valuable tips). However, this exercise helps us determine, from a market cycle/mean reversion standpoint, that the range between $6.5k and $3k appears to be an area where a period of accumulation (perception of value) will most likely occur.
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/1005/content_btc02.png)
Mean reversion is extremely critical. Over a short span, the markets can behave in such an erratic manner, and anything can happen, however, when we scan the market conditions as part of an extended period of time, which may go from months to years - that's when statistics and certain patterns tend to more accurately play out, with 2 plus 2 more often than not equal 4. Performance that is well above average eventually reverts back to an equilibrium point as it no longer can defy gravity, while performance that is well below average has a tendency to improve.
At CoinLive we are always open for interpretations that can be logically explained and have a mathematical backing. We have been long endorsing the approach taken by the user of BitcoinTalk that goes by the name Trolololo and its logarithmic non-linear mean regression chart. According to the chart below, we might be closer to the upper edge of the $6.5k-$3k range, although as usual, a caveat applies. In the past, the price of Bitcoin has had a tendency to spend significant periods of time in an undervalued area below the mean reversion (red line).
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/1006/content_btc03.png)
The formula%2Fweeks)+-+8.81809) that utilizes can also be applied to the total crypto market capitalization (currently at $270b), which can be found below:
![103.23720 log((weeks since Friday, January 9, 2009/week) - 8.81809)](http://www4d.wolframalpha.com/Calculate/MSP/MSP131ei58i8420g3f1eh00005h2a3221h21b15i6?MSPStoreType=image/gif&s=37) = ![1.78×1011](http://www4d.wolframalpha.com/Calculate/MSP/MSP171ei58i8420g3f1eh00002icb526a8ff605ie?MSPStoreType=image/gif&s=37)
Twitter user @TommyWorldPower, a crypto influencer and Creator of @energicrypto, notes: "My observations of the market is that current fair value of market: $175B. Current growth rate ~150%/yr (decaying at 20%/yr, so next year would be ~120% growth). Thus, though we are overvalued now, we would reach fair market value in about 8 months at current valuation. I'm hodling."

What Can We Learn from the Analysis?

Some of the main takeaways from this analysis include:
submitted by Ivo333 to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

Why we won't have a long term bear market, and how to systematically pick your future investments in crypto

With so much uncertainty right now it would be a good time to take some time to go over what happened recently and how to invest moving foward. We've seen a peak bubble at around 850 billion total market cap in the first week of January, consolidated down to $750 billion and have now just experienced a 40% correction.

What's happening now and how bad will it get?

First of all you should realize that there is a January Dip that happens every year, when we see a roughly 20-30% decline around mid January. This year its been much more severe though for several additional factors that have compounded on top.
Different theories exist on why this happens (its actually the mirror opposite of the "January Effect" that happens in the US stock market), but the two major theories are:
1) Asian markets pull into fiat because of Asian New Year spending needs
2) People in the US sell in January to defer their capital gains tax liability an extra year
While this cyclic event has lead to a healthy correction in the last few years, this year we got these new factors making more fear as well:
So in essence we got a storm of scary news along with the usual cyclic downturn. Currently I don't see this as being a systematic crash like Mt.Gox was that would lead to a long term bear market because the fundamental ecosystem is still intact, and I suspect that after about a month we should consolidate around a new low. All the exchanges are still operational and liquid, and there is no breakdown in trust nor uncertainty whether you'll be able to cash out. What range the market trades in will all depend how Bitcoin does, right now we've already broken below 10K but I'm seeing a lot of support at around $8000, which is roughly where the long term MA curve settles. We don't know how bad it will get or what the future will bring, but as of right now we shouldn't be in a bear market yet.
What should you do if you recently entered the market?
If you did buy in the last few months at or near ATH, the very worst thing you can do now is sell in panic and lose your principal. You shouldn't have more money in crypto than you can afford to lose, so it shouldn't be a problem to wait. You have to realize that 30% corrections in crypto are relatively common, just last fall we had a 40% flash correction over more China fears. Unless there is a systematic breakdown like we had during Mt.Gox, the market always recovers.
The other worst thing you can do is unload into Tether as your safety net. If there is one thing that could actually cause a long term destruction of trust within the cryptocurrency investment ecosystem, its Tether having a run up on their liabilities and not having enough reserve to cover the leverage. It would not only bring down exchanges but lead to years of litigation and endless media headlines that will scare off everybody from putting fiat in. I don't know when the next Mt.Gox meltdown will occur but I can almost guarantee it will involve Tether. So stay away from it.
What should long term investors do?
For long term holders a good strategy to follow each year is to capture profit each December and swallow the capital gains taxation liability, park a reserve of fiat at Gemini (whose US dollar deposits are FDIC-insured) and simply wait till around late January to early February to re-enter the market at a discount and hold all year until next December. You can keep a small amount in core coins in order to trade around various Q1 opportunities you anticipate. Others may choose to simply do nothing and just keep holding throughout January which is also a perfectly fine strategy. The cyclical correction usually stabilizes toward late January and early February, then we see a rise in March and generally are recovered by end of April. Obviously this decision whether to sell in December to profit on the dip and pay tax liability or to just hold will depend on your individual tax situation. Do your own math sometime in November and follow suit.
Essentially revaluate your positions and trim your position sizes if you don't feel comfortable with the losses.

How to construct your portfolio going forward

Rather than seeing the correction as a disaster see it as a time to start fresh. If you have been FOMO-ing into bad cryptos and losing money now is a time to start a systematic long term approach to investing rather than gambling.
Follow a methodology for evaluating each cryptocurrency
Memes and lambo dreams are fun and all, but I know many of you are investing thousands of dollars into crypto, so its worth it to put some organized thought into it as well. I can't stress enough how important it is to try and logically contruct your investment decisions. If you follow a set methodology, a checklist and template you will be able to do relative comparisons between cryptocurrencies, to force yourself to consider the negatives and alternative scenarios and also sleep comfortably knowing you have a sound basis for your investment decisions (even if they turn out to be wrong).
There is no ideal or "correct" methodology but I can outline mine:
1) Initial information gathering and filtering
Once I identify something that looks like a good potential investment, I first go to the CoinMarketCap page for that symbol and look at the website and blockchain explorer.
  • Critically evaluate the website. This is the first pass of the bullshit detector and you can tell from a lot from just the website whether its a scam. If it uses terms like "Web 4.0" or other nonsensical buzzwords, if its unprofessional and has anonymous teams, stay away. Always look for a roadmap, compare to what was actually delivered so far. Always check the team, try to find them on LinkedIn and what they did in the past.
  • Read the whitepaper or business development plan. You should fully understand how this crypto functions and how its trying to create value. If there is no use case or if the use case does not require or benefit from a blockchain, move on. Look for red flags like massive portions of the float being assigned to the founders of the coin, vague definition of who would use the coin, anonymous teams, promises of large payouts...etc
  • Check the blockchain explorer. How is the token distribution across accounts? Are the big accounts holding or selling? Which account is likely the foundation account, which is the founders account?
  • Read the subreddit and blogs for the cryptocurrency and also evaluate the community. Try to figure out exactly what the potential use cases are and look for sceptical takes. Look at the Github repos, does it look empty or is there plenty of activity?
2) Fill out an Investment Checklist
I have a checklist of questions that I find important and as I'm researching a crypto I save little snippets in Evernote of things that are relevant to answering those questions:
  • What is the problem or transactional inefficiency the coin is trying to solve?
  • What is the Dev Team like? What is their track record? How are they funded, organized?
  • Who is their competition and how big is the market they're targeting? What is the roadmap they created?
  • What current product exists?
  • How does the token/coin actually derive value for the holder? Is there a staking mechanism or is it transactional?
  • What are the weaknesses or problems with this crypto?
3) Create some sort of consistent valuation model/framework, even if its simple
I have a background in finance so I like to do Excel modeling. For those who are interested in that, this article is a great start and also Chris Burniske has a great blog about using Quantity Theory of Money to build an equivalent of a DCF analysis for crypto.
Here is an Excel file example of OMG done using his model. You can download this and play around with it yourself, see how the formulas link and understand the logic.
Once you have a model set up the way you like in Excel you can simply alter it to account for various float oustanding schedule and market items that are unique to your crypto, and then just start plugging in different assumptions. Think about what is the true derivation of value for the coin, is it a "dividend" coin that you stake within a digital economy and collect fees or is it a currency? Use a realistic monetary velocity (around 5-10 for currency and around 1-2 for staking) and for the discount rate use at least 3x the long term return of a diversified equity fund.
The benefit is that this forces you to think about what actually makes this coin valuable to an actual user within the digital economy its participating in and force you to think about the assumptions you are making about the future. Do your assumptions make sense? What would the assumptions have to be to justify its current price? You can create different scenarios in a matrix (optimistic vs. pessimistic) based on different assumptions for risk (discount rate) and implementation (adoption rates).
If you don't understand the above thats perfectly fine, you don't need to get into full modeling or have a financial background. Even a simple model that just tries to derive a valuation through relative terms will put you above most crypto investors. Some simple valuation methods that anyone can do
  • Metcalfe's Law which states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system (n2). So you can compare various currencies based on their market cap and square of active users or traffic.
  • Another easy one is simply looking at the total market for the industry that the coin is supposedly targeting and comparing it to the market cap of the coin. Think of the market cap not only with circulating supply like its shown on CMC but including total supply. For example the total supply for Dentacoin is 1,841,395,638,392, and when multiplied by its price in early January we get a market cap that is actually higher than the entire industry it aims to disrupt: Dentistry.
  • If its meant to be just used as just a currency: Take a look at the circulating supply and look at the amount that is in cold storage or set to be released/burned. Most cryptos are deflationary so think about how the float schedule will change over time and how this will affect price.
Once you have a model you like set up, you can compare cryptos against each other and most importantly it will require that you build a mental framework within your own mind on why somebody would want to own this coin other than to sell it to another greater fool for a higher price. Modeling out a valuation will lead you to think long term and think about the inherent value, rather than price action.
Once you go through this 3-step methodology, you'll have a pretty good confidence level for making your decision and can comfortably sit back and not panic if some temporary short term condition leads to a price decrease. This is how "smart money" does it.
Think about your portfolio allocation
You should think first in broad terms how you allocate between "safe" and "speculative" cryptos.
For new investors its best to keep a substantial portion in what would be considered largecap safe cryptos, primarily BTC, ETH, LTC. I personally consider XMR to be safe as well. A good starting point is to have between 50-70% of your portfolio in these safe cryptocurrencies. As you become more confident and informed you can move your allocation into speculative small caps.
You should also think in terms of segments and how much of your total portfolio is in each segment:
  • Core holdings - BTC, Ethereum, LTC...etc
  • Platform segment - Ethereum, NEO, Ark...etc
  • Privacy segment - Monero, Zcash, PivX..etc
  • Finance/Bank settlement segment - Ripple, Stellar...etc
  • Enterprise Blockchain solutions segment -VeChain, Walton, WABI...etc
  • Promising/Innovative Tech segment - Raiblocks, IOTA, Cardano...etc
You should also think about where we are in the cycle, as now given so much uncertaintly its probably best to stay heavily in core holdings and pick up a few coins within a segment you understand well. If you don't understand how enterprise solutions work or how the value chain is built through corporations, don't invest in the enteprise blockchain solutions segment. If you are a technie who loves the technology behind Cardano or IOTA, invest in that segment.
Think of your "circle of competence"
This is actually a term Buffet came up with, it refers to your body of knowledge that allows you to evaluate an investment. Think about what you know best and consider investing in those type of coins. If you don't know anything about how supply chains functions, how can you competently judge whether VeChain or WaltonChain will achieve adoption?
This where your portfolio allocation also comes into play. You should diversify but really shouldn't be in much more than around 12 cryptos, because you simply don't have enough competency to accurately access the risk across every segment and for every type of crypto you come across. If you had over 20 different cryptos in your portfolio you should probably think about consolidating to a few sectors you understand well.
Continually educate yourself about the technology and markets
If you aren't already doing it: Read a bit each day about cryptocurrencies. There are decent Youtubers that talk about the market side of crypto, just avoid those that hype specific coins and look for more sceptical ones like CryptoInvestor. If you don't understand how the technology works and what the benefits of a blockchain are or how POS/POW works or what a DAG is or how mining actually works, learn first. If you don't care about the technology or find reading about it tedious, you shouldn't invest in this space at all.

Summing it up

I predicted a few days ago that we would have a major correction in 2018 specifically in the altcoins that saw massive gains in Decemebeearly January, and it seems we've already had a pretty big one. I don't think we'll have a complete meltdown like some are predicting, but some more pain may be incoming.
Basically take this time to think about how you can improve your investment style and strategy. Make a commitment to value things rather than chasing FOMO, and take your time to make a decision. Long term investment will grant you much more returns as will a systematic approach.
Take care and have fun investing :)
Edit March 2018: Lol looking back I'm regretting starting the title with "Why we won't have a long term bear market" now, I was more karma whoring with that catchy title than anything. We recovered up to 11K from this post, but then crashed again hard later in February-March because of a slew of reasons from Tether subpeona to unforseen regulatory issues.
submitted by arsonbunny to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Bitcoin vs. Banks - Top 20 U.S. Listed Bank Stocks by ... Total cryptocurrency market capitalization logarithmic regression band The Top 10 Cryptocurrencies in Market Capitalization - YouTube Bitcoin Price Today - YouTube Bitcoin 1 trillion market cap is guaranteed? - YouTube

The basic calculation for crypto market capitalization is borrowed from the mainstream equities market and goes as follows: multiply the circulating supply by the market token price. Using this formula, any ‘scamtoken’ with five billion units in circulation trading at a cost of $2 would theoretically have a market cap of $10B. The winning formula was to find a digitally dominant network that assured 10x in returns, and based on his research, Bitcoin made the cut. While alternative crypto-assets like DeFi and altcoins have gained significant market capitalization over the past 90 days, Saylor, and by extension, Microstrategy, believe that these projects, though innovative and experimental, are shaded by Bitcoin, with ... PlanB suggests that an investor can forecast the future USD market capitalization of Bitcoin using the above formula. This has helped give credence to those $100,000 Bitcoin projections. Problems abound . There are several deficiencies within the paper, both in its theoretical proposition and its empirical foundation. From a theoretical foundation, the model is based on the rather strong ... Bitcoin Market Capitalization Chart with Historical Bitcoin Market Cap. You can check out above graph to see how the market cap of Bitcoin has changed over time. The market cap value depends on the value of Bitcoin on that particular day and number of Bitcoin in supply at that day. How is Bitcoin Market Cap calculated? The Bitcoin Market cap is calculated using a simple formula. You can find ... The observed slope parameter a indicates that for every one million reductions in future Bitcoin supply (increase in stock by one million Bitcoins), the market cap increases by 10^(0.349) = exp(0 ...

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Bitcoin vs. Banks - Top 20 U.S. Listed Bank Stocks by ...

Bitcoin 1 trillion market cap is guaranteed? ----- My other channels and subscribe! https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCMAep54SS2uOP0cDlZAUGMQ -- Fo... Follow Bitcoin Price Today for DAILY short videos, market capitalizations, chart, rate... Disclaimer: Bitcoin Price Today doesn’t recommend holding, buy, or ... Data visualization of bitcoin market cap vs. top 20 US bank stocks from Jan 2007 to Sept 2020 #Bitcoin #Bitcoin_Price #Bitcoin_Today Bitcoin Price Today - 26 October 2020 Bitcoin Price Today: 13074 US Dollars Market Capitalisation: 242,62 milliards US... In this video on Market Capitalization vs Enterprise Value, we are going to see the differences between these both also the formula to calculate market cap a...

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