# The Bitcoin Volatility Index Price and More

• The Bitcoin Volatility Index Price and More

## 1.1.8 HOW DOES ARYACOIN WORK?

Aryacoin (AYA) tries to ensure a high level of security and privacy. The team has made sure to eliminate any trading restrictions for the network users: no verification is required to carry out transactions on AYA, making the project truly anonymous, decentralized, and giving it a real use in day-to-day life. The Delayed-Proof-of-Work (dPoW) algorithm makes the Aryacoin blockchain immune to any attempts of a 51% attack. AYA defines a coin as a chain of digital signatures — each owner transfers the coin to the next owner by digitally signing the hash of the previous transaction and the public key of the next owner, and the receiver verifies the signatures and the chain of ownership.

# 2. ARYACOIN TECHNOLOGY

## 2.1 PROOF-OF-WORK

They use a proof-of-work system similar to Adam Back’s Hashcash to implement a distributed timestamp server on a peer-to-peer basis, rather than newspaper or Usenet publications. The proof-of-work involves scanning for a value that when hashed, such as with SHA-256, the hash begins with a number of zero bits. The average work required is exponential in the number of zero bits required and can be verified by executing a single hash.
For their timestamp network, they implement the proof-of-work by incrementing a nonce in the block until a value is found that gives the block’s hash the required zero bits. Once the CPU effort has been expended to make it satisfy the proof-of-work, the block cannot be changed without redoing the work. As later blocks are chained after it, the work to change the block would include redoing all the blocks after it.
The proof-of-work also solves the problem of determining representation in majority decision making. If the majority were based on one-IP-address-one-vote, it could be subverted by anyone able to allocate many IPs. Proof-of-work is essentially one-CPU-one-vote. The majority decision is represented by the longest chain, which has the greatest proof-of-work effort invested in it. If honest nodes control a majority of CPU power, the honest chain will grow the fastest and outpace any competing chains. To modify a past
block, an attacker would have to redo the proof-of-work of the block and all blocks after it, then catch up with, and surpass the work of the honest nodes.

## 2.2 NETWORK

The steps to run the network are as follows:
• New transactions are broadcast to all nodes.
• Each node collects new transactions into a block.
• Each node works on finding a difficult proof-of-work for its block.
• When a node finds a proof-of-work, it broadcasts the block to all nodes.
• Nodes accept the block only if all transactions in it are valid and not already spent.
This is a very simple system that makes the network fast and scalable, while also providing a decent level of anonymity for all users. Users can send their transactions to any of the public nodes to be broadcast, and the private key of the sender’s address should sign any transaction sent to the nodes. This way, all transaction info remains strictly confidential. It also allows users to send transactions directly to the node from any place at any time and allows the transferring of huge amounts with very low fees.

## 2.3 AYAPAY PAYMENT SERVICES GATEWAY:

According to creators Aryacoin, the development team has succeeded in inventing a new blockchain technology for the first time in the world, which is undoubtedly a big step and great news for all digital currency enthusiasts around the world.
This new technology has been implemented on the Aryacoin AYAPAY platform and was unveiled on October 2. AYAPAY payment platform is the only payment gateway in the world that does not save money in users’ accounts and transfers incoming coins directly to any wallet address requested by the gateway owner without any additional transaction or fee.
In other similar systems or even systems such as PayPal, money is stored in the user account.

## 2.4 CONSENSUS ALGORITHM IN ARYACOIN

The devs introduced the Delayed-Proof-of-Work (dPoW) algorithm, which represents a hybrid consensus method that allows one blockchain to take advantage of the security provided by the hashing power of another blockchain. The AYA blockchain works on dPoW and can use such consensus methods as Proof-of-Work (PoW) or Proof-of-Stake (PoS) and join to any desired PoW blockchain. The main purpose of this is to allow the blockchain to continue operating without notary nodes on the basis of its original consensus method. In this situation, additional security will no longer be provided through the attached blockchain, but this is not a particularly significant problem. dPoW can improve the security level and reduce energy consumption for any blockchain.

## 2.5 DOUBLE-SPEND PROBLEM AND SOLUTION

One of the main problems in the blockchain world is that a receiver is unable to verify whether or not one of the senders did not double-spend. Aryacoin provides the solution, and has established a trusted central authority, or mint, that checks every transaction for double-spending. Only the mint can issue a new coin and all the coins issued directly from the mint are trusted and cannot be double-spent. However, such a system cannot therefore
be fully decentralized because it depends on the company running the mint, similar to a bank. Aryacoin implements a scheme where the receiver knows that the previous owners did not sign any earlier transactions. The mint is aware of all transactions including which of them arrived first. The developers used an interesting solution called the Timestamp Server, which works by taking a hash of a block of items to be ‘timestamped’ and publishing the hash. Each timestamp includes the previous timestamp in its hash, forming a chain. To modify a block, an attacker would have to redo the proof-of-work of all previous blocks, then catch up with, and surpass the work of the honest nodes. This is almost impossible, and makes the network processes more secure. The proof-of-work difficulty varies according to circumstances. Such an approach ensures reliability and high throughput.

April 2019: The launch of Aryacoin; AYA ICO, resulting in over 30BTC collected
December 2019: The launch of AYA Pay
April 2020: The successful Hamedan Hardfork, supported by all AYA exchanges, aimed at integrating the dPoW algorithm, improving the security of the AYA blockchain.
June 2020: Aryana Exchange goes live, opening more trading opportunities globally
July 2020: The enabling of our Coin Exchanger
November 2020: The implementation of Smart Contracts into the Aryacoin Ecosystem
Q1 2021: Alef B goes live (more details coming soon)

# 4. THE NUCYBER NETWORK COMMUNITY & SOCIAL

Website: https://aryacoin.io/
Explorer: https://explorer.aryacoin.io/
Github: https://github.com/Aryacoin/Aryacoin
Reddit: 442 members https://github.com/nucypher
Instagram: 3.8k followers https://www.instagram.com/mrdigicoin/ Telegram: 5.9k subscribers https://t.me/AYA_Global

# 5. SUMMARY

Aryacoin (AYA) is a new age cryptocurrency that combines the best of the blockchain technology and strives to deliver high trading and mining standards, enabling users to make peer-to-peer decentralized transactions of electronic cash. Aryacoin is part of an ecosystem that includes payment gateway Ayapay and the Ayabank. AYA has a partnership with the Microsoft Azure cloud platform, which provides the ability to develop applications and store data on servers located in distributed data centers. The network fee for the AYA Blockchain is 0%. In Ayapay service, which has been developed by the Aryacoin team, all funds without extra fees or costs are directly forwarded to users’ wallets with technology called CloudWithdrawal. The devs team is introducing new use cases including exchanges where users will exchange AYA without any restrictions. You can buy AYA on an exchange of your choice, create an Aryacoin wallet, and store it in Guarda.

# 6. REFERENCES

1) https://coincodex.com/crypto/aryacoin/
2) https://www.icosandstos.com/coin/Aryacoin%20AYA/YuXO60UPF3
3) https://www.publish0x.com/iran-and-cryptocurrency/a-brief-introduction-of-aryacoin-first-ever-iranian-cryptocu-xoldlom
4) https://techround.co.uk/cryptocurrency/aryacoin-the-digital-currency-created-by-iranians/
5) https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/aryacoin/
6) https://blog.coinpayments.net/coin-spotlight/aryacoin
7) https://guarda.com/aryacoin-wallet

##### Water Currency

Hello!
I am the creator of WaterCurrency and I've been inspired to create something new in the Cryptocurrency world :D
I am developing a Cryptocurrency backed by Water!
This post is a small poll to actually know what you guys think, since you'd be the major users of this project :)
(To be honest it's entirely dedicated to you guys!)
WaterCurrency is a coin pegged to the price of 1 Liter of Water and will be adjusted with Ask-Bid spread once it takes off :)

# The reason:

I wanted to create a Currency which can be considered stable enough to withstand many events:
Gold is the commodity #1 in our world, followed by Silver.
When bad things happen both of these metals gain value because people don't trust standard FIAT money anymore.
Nowadays a new opponent has arisen: Bitcoin.
What is Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency not owned by anyone: a Peer-to-Peer money exchange network without a middleman.
Bitcoin is a service commodity whose intrinsic value depends on its ability to create value by performing some complex hashing procedures; many people however believe that Bitcoin doesn't really have any intrinsic value since it's not backed by Gold or Silver and it's made out of "Thin Air".
Certainly during a crisis period Bitcoin will have a rough time to compete against an actual asset like Gold since no one would actually mine Bitcoin's anymore and accept them as payment.
The scenario I imagine is pretty much apocalyptic: famine, diseases and Gov instability.

# The proposed solution:

Water is the basis of all life, its intrinsic value persists even during the previously mentioned apocalyptic scenario because any living being on this planet will need water to survive.
Water has a stable price in developed countries and can actually be stored for a very long time since Water doesn't go bad (Source: https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/does-water-expire)
Water can be stored in Glass containers and last a lot, according to Truls Krogh, director of the Department of Water Hygiene at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health even more than your entire lifetime (Source: https://sciencenorway.no/forskningno-norway-watecan-water-spoil/1442835)
A Currency backed by Water means that you can "virtualise" many liters of Water and exchange them for Goods or services or even other Cryptocurrencies if you wish but knowing that the price of water is stable and you can redeem water during Crisis.

# Details of the Project:

WaterCurrency starts with 100 000 Coins availability, each one of them is the equivalent of 1 Liter of Water
WaterCurrency has a 3 Decimal precision so you can buy
1. Liter
2. Deciliter
3. Centiliter
4. Milliliter
The initial supply of 100 000 Coins is calculated with the average household water consumption of 273 Liters per day for a single person.

# Fees:

WaterCurrency has very little fees: 0.01 per transaction (proposed, need to evaluate better).

# What can I do with it:

You can buy anything you want! WaterCurrency should soon be able to purchase physical and digitals goods by one of our partners.
You can even exchange it for other Currencies such as Bitcoin, Eth, Monero or others!

# Conclusion:

Having a currency backed by Water is a guarantee. Water won't go away or go bad if stored properly and can last many years to come, can help you and your family during a financial crisis and can actually help the planet.
The more Water you earn the more you can help one of our partner to plant Trees and actually make this World a bit better :)
And also... It's a Water Currency! How cool is that?! :)

# WHAT I NEED:

I'd like to ask you guys to tell me if you are actually interested in this project and if I should carry on and actually make it public.
The Currency is already there and should work correctly once released in production but I need your thoughts, ideas, doubts and whatever you want to tell me!
I'd like to leave you my landing page website and ask you to SIGNUP if you are interested with your email or complete the following Poll if you don't wish to disclose your email.
Thank you in advance to everyone.
___________________________________________________

# The site:

https://watercurrency.org/
___________________________________________________

# Would you use it? Do you like the idea?

View Poll

##### Critical risk nobody is considering when staking Ampleforth..

With bitcoin their is an incentive to stay in the network ("staking" your fiat in bitcoin) because the farther the price of bitcoin goes down, the greater an incentive it would be to buy the coin because the price is lower. Because of the increasingly greater incentives to buy bitcoin at an increasingly lower price, there would be no drying up of incentives for buying bitcoin, so bitcoin will never go too extremely far down. However, with this coin things are different. When things start to dry up or the price goes down, when people decide to pull out, not only will the market cap go down but there is an opposite incentive compared to a decrease in price for bitcoin. If you are still staking while people stop staking and start selling because the price is going down, you will be disproportionately and exponentially effected. For example lets say that the rewards are 20% ampleforth and then the next day rewards are -20% ampleforth. If 20% of users stop staking because -20% is too much of a loss then rewards become -25% ampleforth instead for the remaining users. Maybe -25% ampleforth is too much for some users so another 20% stop staking and the rewards are now -31.5% ampleforth. Notice that the negative rewards become exponentially severe as people leave. This effect will start to become severe and people will be forced to leave staking (and perhaps also have an incentive to sell if they think the price is high at like $3 going to$1 or 1$going to 50 cents) unless they want to lose everything. At some point, the daily % loss is so much that you will need to leave the network or else become completely liquidated and lose everything. Either that or people will realize network participation is so volatile that they simply will not want to stake, and staking is the difference between stable coins and this coin. If people dont want to stake because of exponential volatility, then the market cap goes darastically down. I personally dont know what happens if the market cap goes exponentially down, but I personally dont think people will want to stake in a network that feels like gambling where one day you could earn exponential amount, and other days you can lose an exponential amount. And if people dont stake, then things become even more volatile, and the more volatile things become there would be an even greater incentive to not participate in the network. Its a feedback loop. Right now, everyone is participating in the network, so its hard to imagine people needing to decide whether or not to stake ampleforth, but at some point people will begin to make this decision. I know there is incentives to particpating for longer periods in the network, but I also dont think those incentives are enough given the overwhelming exponential gains and losses that could be incurred from people joining and leaving the network. If the price goes lower than the rebase, and less people are staked because of decrease in price, you will be catching a falling knife because of the low liquidity, which cause you to take extreme losses which are disproportional to the decrease in market cap. This wouldnt be an issue if the liquidity was the same as demand started to rise, because when market cap goes back to its original level and liquidity is the same, you would make up for the temporary losses. However, when the price goes up, I am going to guess many more people will be staked so you will be more likely to make much less than the amount that you lost. This is different than bitcoin where you will always make as much as you lost if the price goes back to its original level. There are positive incentives to stay ("stake") in a network for coins with fluctuating prices, but those incentives dont exist for this coin and are actually the opposite in this case. Im curious what everyone thinks about this theory. Let me know your thoughts. TLDR: The fact that market liquidity can change means lower liquidity when prices go down and higher liquidity when prices go up. Because of lower liquidity when prices go down and higher liquidity when prices go up, if you have 100 Ampleforth when the market cap is 2 trillion, and prices go to 500 billion, you might have actually less ampleforth than you originally had when market cap goes to 2 trillion again because of the low liquidity when prices go down and high liquidity when prices go up, as long as you stay staked when it goes to 500 billion and back. I think this is likely to happen because I think liquidity will always be lower when prices go down than when they go up. The fact that you can lose ampleforth just because prices go down and back means that people will not want to hold when prices go down / go under$1. And this will cause massive reinforcing instability.

##### Cryptocurrencies: the Past Reinvented

 ​ https://preview.redd.it/io0mkfpayel51.jpg?width=2560&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=839666f628a9ae85fa3ef4ffb020c1c2ba598683 As the first country to industrialise in the 1760s, Britain’s manufacturing revolution set the world on one of the greatest practical and ubiquitous changes in human history. Even more extraordinary is the fact that Britain’s industrialisation remained way ahead of potential competition for decades. Only in the early 1900s did historians get to grips with the issues of causation. Max Weber’s pithy answer “the Protestant work ethic” pointed to Puritan seriousness, diligence, fiscal prudence and hard work. Others include the establishment of the Bank of England in 1694 as an essentially corollary by creating the necessary conditions for financial stability. In contrast, Continental Europe lurched from one national debt crisis to another, then through itself headlong into the Napoleonic wars. Unsurprisingly, it was not until after 1815 industrialisation took place on the European mainland where it was spearheaded by the new country of Belgium. 250 years latter with the launch of Bitcoin another revolution had begun; though this one more commercial in nature than industrial. Though the full impact has yet to be played out, the parallels between these two historical events are already striking. Bitcoin may not match the obviousness of industrialisation, but the underlying pragmatics touch on the very foundations of the non-barter economy. Like the establishment of the Bank of England, the creation of the cryptocurrency infrastructure has been prompted by ongoing and worsening threats to financial instability; systemic fault-lines created by macroeconomic challenges flowing from the 2008 crash. For those who could “join the dots” in 2008, there was the realisation that central banks no longer existed as guardians and protectors of national currencies but the tools of creating politicised market distortions; abandoning their duty to preserve wealth in favour of creating the conditions for limitless, cheap government debt. While many of the underlying intentions were benign, inherently the process worked to punish savers and reward reckless debt. This anticipation of on-going instability surrounding fiat currencies and the viability of crypto alternatives has proved more prescient than could have ever been previously imagined. Within a short space of time a wave of undercurrents gave rise to new vocabularies, outlooks and expectations which have impacted commercial and investment transactions, a change never more acutely observed than today, when even against the backdrop of the COVID crisis Central Banks are rushing to create their own “digital” krona, pound, dollar etc. “Digital” may represent a confusing nomenclature, however, as these are not cryptocurrencies in the true sense, and certainly not part of decentralised finance (DeFi). The digital krona does, however, manifest the increasingly powerful impact that the cryptocurrency ecosystem is having on mainstream banking and government behaviour. As with Britain’s industrial revolution, it has taken time for the potential of cryptocoins to find more energetic traction. Over the past 12 years cryptocurrencies have moved from unknown, to novel, to significant and growing interest. As a result, profound changes are underway affecting the mechanics by which investors, the investment industry, wealth mangers and even the commercial banking sector is engaging with cryptocurrencies. This interest has quickened as we enter into a period of deep economic unknown and growing awareness that structural soundness is shifting away from traditional investment options. Intelligent engagement requires cryptocurrency investors/wealth managers to accurately understand and correctly explicate the nature of these influences and assess their potential impact. This article suggests seven distinct elements (a non- exhaustive list) as currently ranking definitive importance: Cryptocurrencies comprise account for only a tiny fraction of the global economy. At an estimated value of $375 billion, this is several orders of magnitude smaller than a world GDP of$35 trillion (2019). Assuming other factors are favourable, there is clearly room for growth. Cryptocurrency success will mark the end of critical aspects of Central Banking monopoly; by revealing the fictitious nature of fiat currencies as a principle; by offering a more competitive vehicle for facilitating commercial transactions; and providing a more stable medium to store monetised assets. Apart from stability, cryptocurrencies offer real returns on “cash” deposits, something which the fiat banking system has long since abandoned. (The reasons for the latter are deeply significant and will be followed up in a subsequent article). Cryptocurrency success will hasten the end of the dollar monopoly in global commerce. Indeed, at current trending, changes in trading mechanics may speedily evolve to the point that such “reserve currencies” no longer have a function at all. Analysts once speculated that it was only a matter of time before the Chinese yuan displaced the dollar, in the same way that the dollar displaced the pound. The edifice which supports the concept of a “global reserve currency” is weakening. The latter’s demise will have significant implications regarding reducing political influence over global finance, as well as nations’ abilities to run longterm balance of payments deficits, current account deficits and borrow at little or no interest. Cryptocurrencies as an ecosystem—assuming the current direction of evolution continues—will increasingly constrain, redirect and set the parameters to government macroeconomic policies. Certainly sound alternatives to fiat currencies will drive the latter to the periphery of commercial life, concomitantly reducing the number of tools the nation state has at its disposal to regulate or respond to changing economic conditions. This especially means setting meaningful interest rates. Above all, it means that government financial engagement can no longer be a rule unto itself, it will have to engage by the same principles as everyone else. A level playing field here has dramatic implications—and will again be picked up in a subsequent article. Cryptocurrencies represent a wider range of disruptive elements affecting the commercial ecosystem. Among the most direct is the ability to raise finance or enter into other commercial transactions with little to no red tape, intrusive regulation or political interference. In short it de-politicises, de-institutionalises and de-centralises investment and payment options, while retaining many of the protective and other beneficial aspects present in traditional finance. Cryptocurrencies offer rapid commercial advances enfranchising the one- third of the global population who do not have a bank account—but do have a mobile phone—and concomitantly enable business that currently cannot accept electronic forms of payment to move into digital commerce. In the way that cellular communication revolutionised sub-saharan Africa in the early 2000s, so we may anticipate some parallel here as regards ease and ubiquity of payment “wallets” and their positive impact on developing economy dynamics. Cryptocurrency potential increasingly offers a route to security and liquid asset preservation/growth in a world where fundamentals are being shifted out of all recognition; driven by economic policies predicated firstly on the priority of COVID management and secondly on the move away from rules-based multilateralism towards bilateralism. Global cooperation is yielding to the demands of national integrity, security of supply and highly aggressive competition in key enabling technologies such as 5G, AI, quantum computing and encryption, which themselves will have as profound impact on cryptocurrency evolution as the creation of the bitcoin itself. Against the backdrop of the essential limits of fiat currencies, current geo- macroeconomic policies and a new emerging world order, cryptocurrencies offer vast potential: An efficiency facilitating frictionless commerce/investment. A medium of stability against the backdrop of uncertainty and inflation. Increased security in value transfer and wealth management. Optimum autonomy in an increasing intrusive climate. “Cash” asset preservation/growth in a world of negative interest rates. In all this we may well have come full circle to 1694 and the stability and security that the establishment of the Bank of England was intended to entrench—but now it is now de-centralised finance that will get us there. Article source: https://www.finxflo.com/news/detail/5127 submitted by JamesFXF to FXF [link] [comments]

##### Gold and Silver: Where Do They Go From Here?

https://federationofglobalmerchants.com/2020/08/14/gold-and-silver-where-do-they-go-from-here/

Investors know by now that one of the leading indicators of an unstable and unpredictable stock market is a surge in the price of precious metals like gold and silver. In February, amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, the markets officially entered a recession, even though just months later several of the major indices have reached all-time highs. It was a brief dip into recessionary territory, but this sort of volatility is what gives investors hesitation in putting their money into the stock market, rather than something that is perceived to be more stable. Gold future contracts are selling well above $2000 per ounce for the rest of 2020 and well into 2021 as well showing that investors are confident that gold will continue to rise in price. Silver is also surging reaching new all-time highs on a daily basis. So investors may be curious as to how to get into this red-hot market, especially as the markets continue to fluctuate. Gold: For centuries now gold has been literally the ‘gold-standard’ of currency and wealth. Dating back all the way to around 40,000 B.C. in Spanish caves, gold is a naturally occurring element that has both fascinated and lured people for as long as barter systems and wealth has been recorded. Currently, gold is enjoying its highest valuations in history as investors flock to the stability of the precious metal through various streams. So what is the allure of gold and why is it so stable? Warren Buffett once said, “Gold is a way of going long on fear.” That is quite a statement from perhaps the greatest investment mind of our generation. But what does this mean for the novice investor? Even the most successful blue-chip stocks can crash. Obviously the more prominent and profitable companies with mega market caps will not crash as easily as smaller companies, but given the volatility of the pandemic, we can see anything happen. But as stock markets fluctuate on a daily basis, the price of gold remains mostly stoic. Not as manipulatable as stock prices, gold is as steady as it gets for investors. What makes gold so stable? It is a combination of factors, first and foremost, it is a physical and tangible element which makes it possible for people to store and stockpile. It does not corrode or wear down over time, making it durable and ensuring that the value remains. There is also a finite supply of it in the world. This reinforces that it will always keep a certain level of valuation as the supply is kept in check. Today, as the Federal Reserve tries desperately to pump money into the American economy to stave off a global recession and keep companies afloat. Printing more American dollars helps in the interim, but it is a temporary band-aid for the bigger problem. As more of the dollar gets created the more it gets devalued as a form of currency. This is another reason why gold is skyrocketing. The two valuations always work inversely to each other, so as the greenback continues to plummet, the price of gold will continue to surge which makes perfect sense if one thinks about it. The value of gold is priced in American dollars per ounce, so if the value of an American dollar retreats, the cost of gold will rise in response. So how can investors take advantage of the current state of gold? In the age of internet investing, there are plenty of ways to invest in gold or anything in that matter. Most American platforms give inventors the ability to buy fractional shares of companies. While this comes in handy for expensive stocks like Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), or Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), it also allows investors to diversify their funds across multiple companies to form a basket approach to an industry. There are also plenty of ETFs or Exchange Traded Funds, available for investors to consider. These funds have the diversification of a mutual fund or index fund, but trade like individual stocks. Here’s a few of the better gold ETFs to consider if you are looking to get into the industry: 1. IAU – iShares Gold Trust: One of the better known gold ETFs out there, iSHARES is a reputable brand with great overall market performance. The fund has returned over 17% to inventors already this year, and with the price of gold projected to continue to rise, this fund should keep delivering for investors into next year. 2. DGL – Invesco DB Gold Fund: Another well known and reputable ETF, the Invesco Gold Fund has slightly higher fees than iSHARES but has also had a slightly better return so far this year. 3. IAUF – iShares Gold Strategy ETF: Another iSHARES ETF, this one has parts of IAU, as well as gold futures contracts, to get a long term forecast of the price of gold so the investor gets exposure to a wider range of gold options. There are dozens of other ETFs available for investors that cover everything from miners to the finished products. Mining company stocks are another great way to get exposure. As the demand for gold increases, these mining companies should see a rise in their revenues and eventually, their profits as well. These changes will be reflected in their stock prices and we have already seen some of this already this year. 1. ABX – Barrick Gold: One of the largest gold mining companies in the world, this Canadian company has seen healthy gains in their stock price so far in 2020. Over the last 52 weeks, Barrick investors have enjoyed a 131% increase in stock price. With mining projects ongoing in Canada, America, Australia, South America, and Africa, Barrick has already announced that it is on track to achieve guidance this year despite closures from COVID-19. 2. FNV – Franco-Nevada Gold: This stock price rose almost 15% in July alone. Franco-Nevada operates as a funding company to gold mining companies, rather than actually doing the mining themselves. Sustainalytics, a guidance and analysis company, rated Franco-Nevada number one amongst 104 precious metal companies. 3. NEM – Newmont Goldcorp: The largest gold stock by market-cap and the only stock to trade on the S&P 500, Newmont is probably the safest company for gold investors to invest in. On top of steady returns and low volatility in the stock price, the company pays a fairly healthy dividend as well. With gold at all-time highs, we can begin to question how high the precious metal may go. With a second wave of the coronavirus making its way around some parts of the world, and America, still making its way through their initial wave, the uncertainty that exists in today’s markets may continue into 2021. Some Wall Street analysts have forecast gold to rise as high as$10,000 per ounce, but that seems like a little ambitious. Gold has just recently hit all-time highs at $2000 per ounce and to imagine that it can run up another 500% in the next few years seems far-fetched at this point in time. That would require the markets to enter an extended bear-market, which of course is possible after a decade of a bullish run, but it would also require the American dollar to continue to be further devalued. Gold is pegged to continue to rise for the rest of this year though and well into 2021. That means investors and analysts are foreseeing a further devaluation of the American greenback as well as continued volatility in the markets and economy. Is gold a safe haven? Some people believe it is, but if you are an investor that enjoys high returns over long periods of time, investing in precious metals may not be for you. Investors love the stability of gold but the returns are never astronomical, with the last few months being an exception. It helps to have a portion of your portfolio dedicated to precious metals to diversify and protect you from any sudden market corrections, but investors should not be looking at gold as a short-term way to get wealthy. Silver: The other precious metal that has been flying sky-high of recent months is silver, the eternal younger brother to gold. Mined from silver-ore, it is a highly malleable metal that was once valued higher than gold by the Ancient Egyptians. Today, it is relatively low in price per ounce compared to gold, reaching all-time highs recently of just under$30 per ounce. Silver is another stable alternative to gold, and at lower prices, it may be a little more affordable for the novice investor to jump into.
Like with gold, silver has an inverse relationship to the American dollar, and to all currencies in general. Again, this is another reason why silver is hitting all-time highs right now, with silver future contracts predicting a steady rise to mirror gold, well into 2021. There is also something that Wall Street calls the gold silver ratio, which is exactly what it sounds like: the ratio of the price of gold per ounce to the price of silver per ounce. This ratio has historically moved together, which makes logical sense if both precious metals are independently moving inverse to paper currencies. Historically, the gold and silver prices do move together though as the general ratio has been in the range of 17:1 to 20:1.
Silver also has numerous ways for investors to get involved in, including silver mining and production companies, as well as the ever popular silver ETFs. These Exchange Traded Funds have gained popularity amongst retail investors in recent years as a way of purchasing a diversified product as a single equity with low costs, and no trading fees if your platform allows it. Here are a few of the better performing silver ETFs that investors can look into adding to their portfolios if they are interested in the precious metal:
1. SLV – iShares Silver Trust: Probably one of the better known silver ETFs, this is fully backed by silver bullion and coins held in a vault. While usually fairly steady, this ETF has enjoyed a 52-week increase of 152% with much of that coming in the last few months.
2. SIVR – Aberdeen Standard Physical Silver Shares ETF: Very similar to SLV but with lower fees, this is an ideal fund for novice and experienced investors to get into as they start to diversify their portfolios.
3. DBS – Invesco DB Silver Fund: Again another stable ETF for investors to get into, and another good performing one as well. Just as with their gold ETF, Invsco focuses on silver futures contracts for this fund, so it is a nice long-term play if investors are bullish on silver.
Just as with gold, investors can get a slice of the silver pie by buying shares of silver mining companies as well. Here are a few of the top silver mining company stocks that investors can look into adding to their portfolios.
1. PAAS – Pan American Silver Corp.: This Canada based miner is focussed on the exploration, development, extraction, refining, processing, and reclamation of silver. They operate mines in Peru, Mexico, Bolivia, and are developing more as well for the future.
2. WPM – Wheaton Precious Metals: Another Canadian based company that deals with miners of gold, silver, palladium, and cobalt. Wheaton is not a direct miner, rather they purchase these precious metals from other mining companies.
3. AG – First Majestic Silver Corp.: Canadian companies seem to be dominating the silver industry, and First Majestic is another of those. This company focuses mainly in Mexico for gold and silver.
Silver may never be as popular as gold for investors to keep track of but the two precious metals move in a synchronized fashion, and both are looked upon by investors as safe havens for their money when the market is in flux.
The rest of 2020 seems like a wildcard right now, with many analysts expecting a further correction to the markets at any point. There seems to be an inevitability to a market crash of some sort, whether it is as big as the one that happened back in February and March, remains to be seen. Investors are looking at the precious metal industry to hold their funds to wait out any sort of correction or crash. If this does happen, we may expect a pullback in precious metals too as investors selloff to get back into some stocks at their low levels. Such is the ebb and flow of the economy during turbulent times like the current one we are in.
At the same time, what if a market correction does not happen? Will the uncertainty continue or will investors feel relatively secure in the way the markets are progressing? This could cause a reduction in the demand for silver and gold, culminating in lower prices in the future. Of course this also depends on the Federal Reserve diminishing their rate of printing paper currency to bailout the economy, which does not seem like a reality in the short-term at least.
Another point of contention for investors is the ongoing economical and political tensions between China and America. The two world powers have been feuding for the past couple of months over various things, but it escalated as China social media app Tik Tok gained popularity in North America. It was alleged that TikTok was sending data and information from mobile phones back to China, though nobody is sure of their intended use of this data. Regardless, the markets have stumbled several times lately because of this. Both sides have threatened economic sanctions and the banning of certain product use in each country. The prices of silver and gold have shot up as the tensions have escalated between the two governments, as investors flock to the precious metals. Many of the biggest companies on the major stock indices rely on China for materials or production, so any sort of breakdown in supply chains could cause an enormous change to their stock prices. An example of this is a sudden 5% correction in the price of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), as it was thought that iPhone sales would decline if China’s chat platform WeChat was banned in America.
There are other factors that may have an effect on gold and silver prices as well. In this modern economy, many of the retail investors have trended towards younger adults with a sudden influx of income. Popular platforms such as Robinhood combined with increased time at home during the quarantine, have caused retail investor usage to skyrocket during the pandemic. Many of these investors are more lured in by the shiny new objects of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Perhaps we will start thinking of these cryptocurrencies as a modern day version of precious metals one day, as many investors and some analysts, believe that Bitcoin may be a safe haven in the future. Already, the price of Bitcoin has risen above $12,000 in August, mirroring the highs of gold and silver. If the demand for Bitcoin rises higher than the demand for precious metals, we may see an investor migration to cryptocurrencies rather than tangible metals. Conclusion: Gold and silver are staples of our global economy, and will continue to be so as long as the demand for precious metals exists. In times of uncertainty, gold and silver are viewed as safe relative to the volatility of the stock market. Sure, their prices can vary as well, but because they are tied to a less dynamic valuation that is based on an inverse relation to paper currency, their prices will not and can not fluctuate as much as the liquidity of individual stocks. As long as the world remains in flux, there will be a general feeling of instability, especially for global markets. A second wave of COVID-19 in the third or fourth quarter of 2020 could prove to be enough to push the markets over the edge and into another recession. The bull market has been rallying for over a decade now, with astronomical gains over the last few years, especially for sectors like the big tech FAANG stocks. Another factor to consider is what a Biden government could bring to the world if he is elected over President Donald Trump in October. A new government could ease some of the tensions with China, as well as within America itself. These are all big what ifs, and could all have potential impacts on the economy and the world. As long as all of these factors are up in the air, investors will be looking to gold and silver as ways of stabilizing their portfolios and protecting their finances from a potential market crash in the future. submitted by Toughcatlove to u/Toughcatlove [link] [comments] ##### The speech of Jerome Powell might influence the future of financial markets – will it help Bitcoin?  ​ https://preview.redd.it/vatujns7wqj51.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4bed25d799f61b785f8fcde08a4b8f8130c0415b Yesterday, the whole financial world was waiting for the speech of Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Only the waiting for his speech and the following session did already see higher volatility all across the financial markets. Bitcoin for instance increased in a matter of seconds from 11 300 to more than 11 600 dollars in the afternoon trading sessions. Shortly, it fell back down to the levels of 11 300 dollars and is currently trading at around 11 450 dollars. However, that is not the only outcome of the speech of one of the most influential central bankers of the current time. What did Jerome Powell tell us? The speech of Jerome Powell introduced few new concepts that are connected to the tough economical situation, which happened due to the COVID-19 and the lockdowns connected with quarantine. These restrictions negatively influenced almost all the industries, but Fed tried to deal with the economic slowdown by printing more money. However, this could not go on forever, which is why Jerome Powell introduced new ideas and plans of Fed. Obviously, Fed is very aware of the worsening situation and that is one of the reasons why it changed its taken on inflation. First time in the modern history the Fed informed that the inflation rate will be held on the average level of 2%. Until now, the inflation policies have always tried to keep inflation below or at 2% level, depending on the country and central bank. What the target of having 2% average inflation rate means is that during some period of time, the inflation can be around 3% even 4%. In the medium to long term however, the Fed wants to keep the inflation level on the average of 2%. The reasoning that Jerome Powell presented is that the higher inflation will help with keeping the interest rates lower and therefore help the economy to restart. This is due to the fact that the lower interest rates will encourage the households, businesses and individuals to spend the money and not to save them. This should help decrease the unemployment and recover from potential crises faster and stabilize the job markets and the economy overall. What this means for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies? Simply put, encouraging the people to spend also means that people will try to invest more so that the inflation does not cost them money. That is one of the reasons why yesterdays news are very bullish for the cryptocurrency sector, as individuals might be inclined to invest into more risky investments. What is also intriguing is the fact that people might be interested in investing in Bitcoin not only as a speculative asset, but also safe-haven asset such as gold. That is what evidence suggests, since the correlation of Bitcoin and gold has been increasing recently, reaching ATH on monthly correlation. What does this mean for the future? In this case, the reason for investing is not as important as the fact that individuals and households might be inclined to invest more money into Bitcoin due to the instability of inflation leading to unnecessary financial risk. That means, more people will be inclined to enter the cryptocurrency sector. And that is what Fun Gram is here to do. Fun Gram is here to help those that do not have the necessary experience or skills needed to invest in any cryptocurrency out there. Having created the platform for social interaction between crypto enthusiasts, the project aims to connect people with different experience and levels of understanding of blockchain, FinTech, DeFi, trading or investing. Using encryption economy, blockchain and artificial intelligence, Fun Gram combines the most recent FinTech trends together to help everyone feel welcomed and informed in the sector of cryptocurrencies. Moreover, Fun Gram connects the sectors of decentralization, payments and finance, meaning that it creates a complete ecosystem for everyone. submitted by fungram-global to u/fungram-global [link] [comments] ##### White Swan came, Black Swan's a comin' Like many here, I'm trying to come up with an investment thesis and a strategy for these uncertain times. I'm currently Bearish - have gone largely to cash, but want to invest in defensive plays because I see much more uncertainty ahead. So this long and rambling post is going to try to play with some ideas I've been having about the future. For the record, I've been investing for 8 years, was primarily an ETF buy and hold investor, and am Canadian, with a background in Political Science. ( I mean, I've got an undergraduate degree and a long-time interest, I'm no expert or nothing.) I've read Nassim Taleb's Incerto series and have been mainly convinced, I think, and am surprised at the number of people who are calling this a Black Swan (BS) event; there's a post from today where a guy points out that it's not, and that Taleb himself says it's not and he got downvoted to hell. So first off: the Covid-19 pandemic was not a Black Swan. The Covid-19 pandemic, or one like it, has been predicted by damn near everybody for decades. The Obama administration even used a similar pandemic as a war game to get the Trump administration up to speed during the transition, Bill Gates called this years ago, we had a similar outbreak in SARS and H1N1, etc. Even if that wasn't the case, C19 would only be a BS for China - as a bunch of media sources have pointed out, there were US intelligence reports as far back as December saying this would be a huge deal, which were ignored by the administration. So all the suggestions that this is a BS event are really just pointing out how bad many governments, markets, and corporations are at predicting the future - they're unable to predict or prepare, or respond appropriately for a predictable event and only capable of reacting (with the exception of some countries like South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Germany...) Now with the market rallying the bulls are all saying "it's priced in, you can't fight the Fed, etc," and I'm thinking: 1) The emperor has no clothes; the US government is clearly incompetent. It couldn't even listen to it's own experts about the likely extent of the pandemic, had no plan or even seemingly the ability to be at all proactive. For example, an aircraft carrier had a port call in Vietnam, during the middle of a pandemic that started in Asia. Then, completely predictably, it had an outbreak of C19 and it's capabilities were badly damaged and the administration couldn't even properly help it's own ship, nor manage the public relations fallout that resulted. I mean, do you have any idea how insane it is that that ship was allowed to dock during a pandemic? One of the most powerful military devices that ever existed got taken off line cause the administration couldn't understand it's own intelligence. This incompetence isn't limited to the US of course - the UK handled their initial response badly and had to switch horses mid-race, Canada lagged badly responding as well, Italy and Spain mismanaged their response - but I'd argue that the US, given their advantages in intelligence collection, should have been best positioned to deal with this crisis so I focus on them. 2) Because of this, I think the odds of a real Black Swan event have gone up considerably, and if one does occur, it will occur when the US is historically divided and weakened and where it's economic system is out of ammunition to deal with a second crisis. I'll explain: We have been living at at time when major geopolitical disruptions have been absent - while proxy wars and minor terrorist attacks still occur, there's been no wars between great powers for some time, and I think many have come to see this as natural; that the unipolar world will continue. But Russia is resurgent, China has a 50 year plan to grow its economy and eventually take a place as a hegemon, which may be entering end-game, and much of the Western international community has grown uncomfortable with US leadership, given the American tendency to elect incompetent Republicans. So we're likely entering an era of uncertainty and increased instability as the contenders vie for status in the new international order. This doesn't mean war or open combat - it's become a cliche that the new wars of the 21st century are economic ones, and, given nuclear proliferation that's likely to continue. And I think we're more likely to see significant economic combat in the next 6 months than at almost any time during the last decade, because: 1) Trump is incompetent (and here I should stop just shitting on Republicans... the Dems have picked a 77 year old half senile fool to go up against him. I mean, looking at the two guys contending for the leadership of the most powerful country that has ever existed, it's hard to come away thinking that this is the sign of a healthy political system.) 2)America is weak (relatively speaking obviously, they're still the undisputed big swinging dick) and divided. 3)Because of C19 hits to economy, Trump may not be re-elected. I suspect that if it looked likely that he's re-elected, China at least would be content to sit quiet and wait for 4 more years of dumbasserry to take its toll on US hegemony - similarly with Russia. But if it looks like he'll lose come November, they'll take advantage. What would that economic war look like? Lots of options that I see, and I'm curious if you guys see other ones. I mean, what would it look like if China dumped treasuries over the next 7 months? Or what would happen if China and Russia, or even OPEC+ decided to trade oil in non-US dollars? Or what if China leverages foreign aid to African and Asian countries hard-hit by C19 for long term trade deals designed to damage US interests? Iran and North Korea are additionally wild cards, and if either one is hard hit by C19 could go down flailing with unpredictable results. Any others I'm missing? Curious to hear other's ideas. Now, note I'm not saying that odds of economic war with China or any other US adversary are likely; I'm saying if the odds of a geopolitical Black Swan were usually 5% in any given year of the last twenty, I suspect the odds of a major BS have gone up 4 or 5 fold - so like 20-30%. And I'm wondering, given unlimited QE, zero interest rates almost everywhere, central banks everywhere supporting stock and currency markets, etc -- what a defensive portfolio, preferably one that's still exposed to positive black swans like a sudden cure, would look like. Is it gold or silver? Cash? Bitcoin? I've already got enough guns and bullets and a bunker... just kidding about the bunker. But seriously, I'm thinking something like 10-20% PMs and miners, 20% cash, 20% bonds and the rest equity ETFs of some countries likely to benefit from a stronger and more dominant China, like South Korea and Australia. Given Chinese dishonesty and the opacity of the financial system, investing directly in Chinese companies makes me nervous, though I've been considering a stake in BABA. Canada, it seems to me, is too joined at the hip with the USA to do anything other than follow where it goes. Anyways, if you stuck with me through all that, thanks and I'd love to hear other's thoughts. I'm absolutely not a prepper nor prone to panic -- I just think we're living in real interesting times and the times are likely to get interestinger in the near future. submitted by Davidallencoen to investing [link] [comments] ##### [SHARE] Fulfilled Request Megathread 4 FREE DOWNLOAD Download any of these for free at https://oppfiles.com/585933 DM me if you have any requests for anything not on the list. Please subscribe the sub to find all the eBook releases. Enjoy! [BOOK] 'The macabresque : human violation and hate in genocide, mass atrocity and enemy-making' Edward Weisband, Oxford University Press 2018(self) 1 [BOOK] Scotland After the Ice Age Environment, Archaeology and History 8000 BC - AD 1000(self) 1 [Book] Ethics of Captivity edited by Lori Gruen(self) 1 [Book] Aspects of American History By Simon Henderson(self) 1 [Book] The Soviet Colossus History and Aftermath By Michael G. 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Exploring the Boundaries of Environmental and State-Corporate Crime in Bolivia, Peru, and Mexico(self) 1 [Book] International Human Rights Law (3rd edn) Edited by Daniel Moeckli - Oxford University Press(self) 4 [Book] Participatory Heritage, Edited by Henriette Roued-Cunliffe , Andrea Copeland(self) 4 [BOOK] Political Representation in Southern Europe and Latin America Before and After the Great Recession and the Commodity Crisis - André Freire, Mélany Barragán, Xavier Coller, Marco Lisi, Emmanouil Tsatsanis(self) 4 [BOOK] Latin America and Policy Diffusion From Import to Export - Osmany Porto de Oliveira, Cecilia Osorio Gonnet, Sergio Montero, Cristiane Kerches da Silva Leite(self) 0 [Book] Sexual behaviour in Britain: The National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (1994)(self) 1 [book] Studien zur Hirnpathologie und Psychologie - Pick, Arnold(self) 4 [Other] Special Issue, Blockchain innovation and public policy, Journal of Entrepreneurship and Public Policy: Volume 9 Issue 2(self) 4 [BOOK] baby jails: the fight to end the incarceration of refugee children in america/ jstor account??(self) 1 [Journal] Special Issue: Blockchain innovation and public policy, Journal of Entrepreneurship and Public Policy, Volume 9, Issue 2(self) 1 [Book] Blackstone's EU Treaties and Legislation 2019-2020 (20th ed)(self) 3 [article] Deep Graph Kernels(self) 5 [Book] Routledge Handbook of the South Asian Diaspora - By Joya Chatterji, David Washbrook(self) 4 [Book] Growth and distribution(self) 1 [BOOK] The Radical Left in Europe in the Age of Austerity - Babak Amini(self) 4 [Book] Political Myth by Christopher Flood (Routledge) (2002)(self) 2 [Article] Robotic Assisted Radical Cystectomy vs Open Radical Cystectomy: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis + Niranjan J Sathianathen et al(self) 1 [Book] Folk Art Potters of Japan Beyond an Anthropology of Aesthetics (Routledge) by Brian Moeran(self) 1 [book] Revolution: How the Bicycle Reinvented Modern Britain(self) 5 [BOOK] Radical Left Movements in Europe - Magnus Wennerhag, Christian Fröhlich, Grzegorz Piotrowski(self) 4 [BOOK] Party System Change, the European Crisis and the State of Democracy - Marco Lisi(self) 5 [BOOK] Routledge Handbook of Contemporary European Social Movements. Protest in Turbulent Times - Cristina Flesher Fominaya, Ramon A. Feenstra(self) 4 [Book] Attorney-Client Privilege in International Arbitration(self) 1 [Article] An Alternative Ontology of Food Beyond Metaphysics by Lisa Heldke. Published in Radical Philosophy Review, Vol 15, Issue 1, 2012(self) 1 [Book] Bello, Walden 2005 Dilemmas of Domination: The Unmaking of the American Empire. Zed Books, 2005.(self) 1 [Article] Owning the PastOwning the Past Reply to Stokes(self) 1 [Article] Owning the PastOwning the Past Reply to Stokes(self) 1 [Book] McQuire, Scott. Crossing the Digital Threshold. Brisbane: Australian Key Centre for Cultural and Media Policy, Faculty of Humanities, Griffith University, 1997.(self) 3 [Book] Request: Migration and the Refugee Dissensus in Europe: Borders, Security and Austerity by Nicos Trimikliniotis.(self) 9 [Article] Masculinity in videogames: the gendered gameplay of Silent Hill(self) 1 [BOOK] 'Truth games : lies, money, and psychoanalysis' by John Forrester, Harvard University Press, 2000(self) 1 [Book] Osterloh, Jörg, und Clemens Vollnhals. NS-Prozesse Und Deutsche Öffentlichkeit: Besatzungszeit, Frühe Bundesrepublik Und DDR.(self) 2 submitted by jaylenholt to ebookleaksdownload [link] [comments] ##### This will also go for Bitcoin, probably even to a bigger extent.. This is a quote from Egon von Greyerz: "Forget about what price the metals will reach. Even in today’s money, whatever figure you think of will not be enough. And in hyperinflationary money, the price move will be exponential measured in worthless paper money. So don’t think about the value of gold and silver in dollars or euros. Just remember that gold is the only money that has survived in history. It is therefore the best form of wealth preservation and insurance against a bankrupt financial system…" You can find a lot of interesting articles he wrote. He is telling about the value of gold and the instable financial situation for more than a decade. Unfortunately he never talks about Bitcoin and I have never been able to talk about it with him. It's hard to imagine he wouldn't be listening to the Bitcoin proposition if told about it.. I think he's one of the few who is openly talking about the risks of the current financial sysyem without going to the usual conspiracy theories. His company manages the wealth of a lot high wealth individuals. I think he's definitely correct about the future, but for some reason hasn't got Bitcoin on his radar. Probably because he plays the most safe cards. But what he tells about gold will also go for Bitcoin, with the big difference that gold is the absolute safe way to play and Bitcoin being the leveraged way. More leverage means more risks compensated by higher possible gains. HODL... strong.. submitted by Btcyoda to Bitcoin [link] [comments] ##### Dive Into Tendermint Consensus Protocol (I) This article is written by the CoinEx Chain lab. CoinEx Chain is the world’s first public chain exclusively designed for DEX, and will also include a Smart Chain supporting smart contracts and a Privacy Chain protecting users’ privacy. longcpp @ 20200618 This is Part 1 of the serialized articles aimed to explain the Tendermint consensus protocol in detail. Part 1. Preliminary of the consensus protocol: security model and PBFT protocol Part 2. Tendermint consensus protocol illustrated: two-phase voting protocol and the locking and unlocking mechanism Part 3. Weighted round-robin proposer selection algorithm used in Tendermint project Any consensus agreement that is ultimately reached is the General Agreement, that is, the majority opinion. The consensus protocol on which the blockchain system operates is no exception. As a distributed system, the blockchain system aims to maintain the validity of the system. Intuitively, the validity of the blockchain system has two meanings: firstly, there is no ambiguity, and secondly, it can process requests to update its status. The former corresponds to the safety requirements of distributed systems, while the latter to the requirements of liveness. The validity of distributed systems is mainly maintained by consensus protocols, considering the multiple nodes and network communication involved in such systems may be unstable, which has brought huge challenges to the design of consensus protocols. ## The semi-synchronous network model and Byzantine fault tolerance Researchers of distributed systems characterize these problems that may occur in nodes and network communications using node failure models and network models. The fail-stop failure in node failure models refers to the situation where the node itself stops running due to configuration errors or other reasons, thus unable to go on with the consensus protocol. This type of failure will not cause side effects on other parts of the distributed system except that the node itself stops running. However, for such distributed systems as the public blockchain, when designing a consensus protocol, we still need to consider the evildoing intended by nodes besides their failure. These incidents are all included in the Byzantine Failure model, which covers all unexpected situations that may occur on the node, for example, passive downtime failures and any deviation intended by the nodes from the consensus protocol. For a better explanation, downtime failures refer to nodes’ passive running halt, and the Byzantine failure to any arbitrary deviation of nodes from the consensus protocol. Compared with the node failure model which can be roughly divided into the passive and active models, the modeling of network communication is more difficult. The network itself suffers problems of instability and communication delay. Moreover, since all network communication is ultimately completed by the node which may have a downtime failure or a Byzantine failure in itself, it is usually difficult to define whether such failure arises from the node or the network itself when a node does not receive another node's network message. Although the network communication may be affected by many factors, the researchers found that the network model can be classified by the communication delay. For example, the node may fail to send data packages due to the fail-stop failure, and as a result, the corresponding communication delay is unknown and can be any value. According to the concept of communication delay, the network communication model can be divided into the following three categories: • The synchronous network model: There is a fixed, known upper bound of delay$\Delta$in network communication. Under this model, the maximum delay of network communication between two nodes in the network is$\Delta$. Even if there is a malicious node, the communication delay arising therefrom does not exceed$\Delta$. • The asynchronous network model: There is an unknown delay in network communication, with the upper bound of the delay known, but the message can still be successfully delivered in the end. Under this model, the network communication delay between two nodes in the network can be any possible value, that is, a malicious node, if any, can arbitrarily extend the communication delay. • The semi-synchronous network model: Assume that there is a Global Stabilization Time (GST), before which it is an asynchronous network model and after which, a synchronous network model. In other words, there is a fixed, known upper bound of delay in network communication$\Delta$. A malicious node can delay the GST arbitrarily, and there will be no notification when no GST occurs. Under this model, the delay in the delivery of the message at the time$T$is$\Delta + max(T, GST)$. The synchronous network model is the most ideal network environment. Every message sent through the network can be received within a predictable time, but this model cannot reflect the real network communication situation. As in a real network, network failures are inevitable from time to time, causing the failure in the assumption of the synchronous network model. Yet the asynchronous network model goes to the other extreme and cannot reflect the real network situation either. Moreover, according to the FLP (Fischer-Lynch-Paterson) theorem, under this model if there is one node fails, no consensus protocol will reach consensus in a limited time. In contrast, the semi-synchronous network model can better describe the real-world network communication situation: network communication is usually synchronous or may return to normal after a short time. Such an experience must be no stranger to everyone: the web page, which usually gets loaded quite fast, opens slowly every now and then, and you need to try before you know the network is back to normal since there is usually no notification. The peer-to-peer (P2P) network communication, which is widely used in blockchain projects, also makes it possible for a node to send and receive information from multiple network channels. It is unrealistic to keep blocking the network information transmission of a node for a long time. Therefore, all the discussion below is under the semi-synchronous network model. The design and selection of consensus protocols for public chain networks that allow nodes to dynamically join and leave need to consider possible Byzantine failures. Therefore, the consensus protocol of a public chain network is designed to guarantee the security and liveness of the network under the semi-synchronous network model on the premise of possible Byzantine failure. Researchers of distributed systems point out that to ensure the security and liveness of the system, the consensus protocol itself needs to meet three requirements: • Validity: The value reached by honest nodes must be the value proposed by one of them • Agreement: All honest nodes must reach consensus on the same value • Termination: The honest nodes must eventually reach consensus on a certain value Validity and agreement can guarantee the security of the distributed system, that is, the honest nodes will never reach a consensus on a random value, and once the consensus is reached, all honest nodes agree on this value. Termination guarantees the liveness of distributed systems. A distributed system unable to reach consensus is useless. ## The CAP theorem and Byzantine Generals Problem In a semi-synchronous network, is it possible to design a Byzantine fault-tolerant consensus protocol that satisfies validity, agreement, and termination? How many Byzantine nodes can a system tolerance? The CAP theorem and Byzantine Generals Problem provide an answer for these two questions and have thus become the basic guidelines for the design of Byzantine fault-tolerant consensus protocols. Lamport, Shostak, and Pease abstracted the design of the consensus mechanism in the distributed system in 1982 as the Byzantine Generals Problem, which refers to such a situation as described below: several generals each lead the army to fight in the war, and their troops are stationed in different places. The generals must formulate a unified action plan for the victory. However, since the camps are far away from each other, they can only communicate with each other through the communication soldiers, or, in other words, they cannot appear on the same occasion at the same time to reach a consensus. Unfortunately, among the generals, there is a traitor or two who intend to undermine the unified actions of the loyal generals by sending the wrong information, and the communication soldiers cannot send the message to the destination by themselves. It is assumed that each communication soldier can prove the information he has brought comes from a certain general, just as in the case of a real BFT consensus protocol, each node has its public and private keys to establish an encrypted communication channel for each other to ensure that its messages will not be tampered with in the network communication, and the message receiver can also verify the sender of the message based thereon. As already mentioned, any consensus agreement ultimately reached represents the consensus of the majority. In the process of generals communicating with each other for an offensive or retreat, a general also makes decisions based on the majority opinion from the information collected by himself. According to the research of Lamport et al, if there are 1/3 or more traitors in the node, the generals cannot reach a unified decision. For example, in the following figure, assume there are 3 generals and only 1 traitor. In the figure on the left, suppose that General C is the traitor, and A and B are loyal. If A wants to launch an attack and informs B and C of such intention, yet the traitor C sends a message to B, suggesting what he has received from A is a retreat. In this case, B can't decide as he doesn't know who the traitor is, and the information received is insufficient for him to decide. If A is a traitor, he can send different messages to B and C. Then C faithfully reports to B the information he received. At this moment as B receives conflicting information, he cannot make any decisions. In both cases, even if B had received consistent information, it would be impossible for him to spot the traitor between A and C. Therefore, it is obvious that in both situations shown in the figure below, the honest General B cannot make a choice. According to this conclusion, when there are$n$generals with at most$f$traitors (n≤3f), the generals cannot reach a consensus if$n \leq 3f$; and with$n > 3f$, a consensus can be reached. This conclusion also suggests that when the number of Byzantine failures$f$exceeds 1/3 of the total number of nodes$n$in the system$f \ge n/3$, no consensus will be reached on any consensus protocol among all honest nodes. Only when$f < n/3$, such condition is likely to happen, without loss of generality, and for the subsequent discussion on the consensus protocol,$ n \ge 3f + 1$by default. The conclusion reached by Lamport et al. on the Byzantine Generals Problem draws a line between the possible and the impossible in the design of the Byzantine fault tolerance consensus protocol. Within the possible range, how will the consensus protocol be designed? Can both the security and liveness of distributed systems be fully guaranteed? Brewer provided the answer in his CAP theorem in 2000. It indicated that a distributed system requires the following three basic attributes, but any distributed system can only meet two of the three at the same time. 1. Consistency: When any node responds to the request, it must either provide the latest status information or provide no status information 2. Availability: Any node in the system must be able to continue reading and writing 3. Partition Tolerance: The system can tolerate the loss of any number of messages between two nodes and still function normally https://preview.redd.it/1ozfwk7u7m851.png?width=1400&format=png&auto=webp&s=fdee6318de2cf1c021e636654766a7a0fe7b38b4 A distributed system aims to provide consistent services. Therefore, the consistency attribute requires that the two nodes in the system cannot provide conflicting status information or expired information, which can ensure the security of the distributed system. The availability attribute is to ensure that the system can continuously update its status and guarantee the availability of distributed systems. The partition tolerance attribute is related to the network communication delay, and, under the semi-synchronous network model, it can be the status before GST when the network is in an asynchronous status with an unknown delay in the network communication. In this condition, communicating nodes may not receive information from each other, and the network is thus considered to be in a partitioned status. Partition tolerance requires the distributed system to function normally even in network partitions. The proof of the CAP theorem can be demonstrated with the following diagram. The curve represents the network partition, and each network has four nodes, distinguished by the numbers 1, 2, 3, and 4. The distributed system stores color information, and all the status information stored by all nodes is blue at first. 1. Partition tolerance and availability mean the loss of consistency: When node 1 receives a new request in the leftmost image, the status changes to red, the status transition information of node 1 is passed to node 3, and node 3 also updates the status information to red. However, since node 3 and node 4 did not receive the corresponding information due to the network partition, the status information is still blue. At this moment, if the status information is queried through node 2, the blue returned by node 2 is not the latest status of the system, thus losing consistency. 2. Partition tolerance and consistency mean the loss of availability: In the middle figure, the initial status information of all nodes is blue. When node 1 and node 3 update the status information to red, node 2 and node 4 maintain the outdated information as blue due to network partition. Also when querying status information through node 2, you need to first ask other nodes to make sure you’re in the latest status before returning status information as node 2 needs to follow consistency, but because of the network partition, node 2 cannot receive any information from node 1 or node 3. Then node 2 cannot determine whether it is in the latest status, so it chooses not to return any information, thus depriving the system of availability. 3. Consistency and availability mean the loss of the partition tolerance: In the right-most figure, the system does not have a network partition at first, and both status updates and queries can go smoothly. However, once a network partition occurs, it degenerates into one of the previous two conditions. It is thus proved that any distributed system cannot have consistency, availability, and partition tolerance all at the same time. https://preview.redd.it/456x2blv7m851.png?width=1400&format=png&auto=webp&s=550797373145b8fc1471bdde68ed5f8d45adb52b The discovery of the CAP theorem seems to declare that the aforementioned goals of the consensus protocol is impossible. However, if you’re careful enough, you may find from the above that those are all extreme cases, such as network partitions that cause the failure of information transmission, which could be rare, especially in P2P network. In the second case, the system rarely returns the same information with node 2, and the general practice is to query other nodes and return the latest status as believed after a while, regardless of whether it has received the request information of other nodes. Therefore, although the CAP theorem points out that any distributed system cannot satisfy the three attributes at the same time, it is not a binary choice, as the designer of the consensus protocol can weigh up all the three attributes according to the needs of the distributed system. However, as the communication delay is always involved in the distributed system, one always needs to choose between availability and consistency while ensuring a certain degree of partition tolerance. Specifically, in the second case, it is about the value that node 2 returns: a probably outdated value or no value. Returning the possibly outdated value may violate consistency but guarantees availability; yet returning no value deprives the system of availability but guarantees its consistency. Tendermint consensus protocol to be introduced is consistent in this trade-off. In other words, it will lose availability in some cases. The genius of Satoshi Nakamoto is that with constraints of the CAP theorem, he managed to reach a reliable Byzantine consensus in a distributed network by combining PoW mechanism, Satoshi Nakamoto consensus, and economic incentives with appropriate parameter configuration. Whether Bitcoin's mechanism design solves the Byzantine Generals Problem has remained a dispute among academicians. Garay, Kiayias, and Leonardos analyzed the link between Bitcoin mechanism design and the Byzantine consensus in detail in their paper The Bitcoin Backbone Protocol: Analysis and Applications. In simple terms, the Satoshi Consensus is a probabilistic Byzantine fault-tolerant consensus protocol that depends on such conditions as the network communication environment and the proportion of malicious nodes' hashrate. When the proportion of malicious nodes’ hashrate does not exceed 1/2 in a good network communication environment, the Satoshi Consensus can reliably solve the Byzantine consensus problem in a distributed environment. However, when the environment turns bad, even with the proportion within 1/2, the Satoshi Consensus may still fail to reach a reliable conclusion on the Byzantine consensus problem. It is worth noting that the quality of the network environment is relative to Bitcoin's block interval. The 10-minute block generation interval of the Bitcoin can ensure that the system is in a good network communication environment in most cases, given the fact that the broadcast time of a block in the distributed network is usually just several seconds. In addition, economic incentives can motivate most nodes to actively comply with the agreement. It is thus considered that with the current Bitcoin network parameter configuration and mechanism design, the Bitcoin mechanism design has reliably solved the Byzantine Consensus problem in the current network environment. ## Practical Byzantine Fault Tolerance, PBFT It is not an easy task to design the Byzantine fault-tolerant consensus protocol in a semi-synchronous network. The first practically usable Byzantine fault-tolerant consensus protocol is the Practical Byzantine Fault Tolerance (PBFT) designed by Castro and Liskov in 1999, the first of its kind with polynomial complexity. For a distributed system with$n$nodes, the communication complexity is$O(n2$.) Castro and Liskov showed in the paper that by transforming centralized file system into a distributed one using the PBFT protocol, the overwall performance was only slowed down by 3%. In this section we will briefly introduce the PBFT protocol, paving the way for further detailed explanations of the Tendermint protocol and the improvements of the Tendermint protocol. The PBFT protocol that includes$n=3f+1$nodes can tolerate up to$f$Byzantine nodes. In the original paper of PBFT, full connection is required among all the$n$nodes, that is, any two of the n nodes must be connected. All the nodes of the network jointly maintain the system status through network communication. In the Bitcoin network, a node can participate in or exit the consensus process through hashrate mining at any time, which is managed by the administrator, and the PFBT protocol needs to determine all the participating nodes before the protocol starts. All nodes in the PBFT protocol are divided into two categories, master nodes, and slave nodes. There is only one master node at any time, and all nodes take turns to be the master node. All nodes run in a rotation process called View, in each of which the master node will be reelected. The master node selection algorithm in PBFT is very simple: all nodes become the master node in turn by the index number. In each view, all nodes try to reach a consensus on the system status. It is worth mentioning that in the PBFT protocol, each node has its own digital signature key pair. All sent messages (including request messages from the client) need to be signed to ensure the integrity of the message in the network and the traceability of the message itself. (You can determine who sent a message based on the digital signature). The following figure shows the basic flow of the PBFT consensus protocol. Assume that the current view’s master node is node 0. Client C initiates a request to the master node 0. After the master node receives the request, it broadcasts the request to all slave nodes that process the request of client C and return the result to the client. After the client receives f+1 identical results from different nodes (based on the signature value), the result can be taken as the final result of the entire operation. Since the system can have at most f Byzantine nodes, at least one of the f+1 results received by the client comes from an honest node, and the security of the consensus protocol guarantees that all honest nodes will reach consensus on the same status. So, the feedback from 1 honest node is enough to confirm that the corresponding request has been processed by the system. https://preview.redd.it/sz8so5ly7m851.png?width=1400&format=png&auto=webp&s=d472810e76bbc202e91a25ef29a51e109a576554 For the status synchronization of all honest nodes, the PBFT protocol has two constraints on each node: on one hand, all nodes must start from the same status, and on the other, the status transition of all nodes must be definite, that is, given the same status and request, the results after the operation must be the same. Under these two constraints, as long as the entire system agrees on the processing order of all transactions, the status of all honest nodes will be consistent. This is also the main purpose of the PBFT protocol: to reach a consensus on the order of transactions between all nodes, thereby ensuring the security of the entire distributed system. In terms of availability, the PBFT consensus protocol relies on a timeout mechanism to find anomalies in the consensus process and start the View Change protocol in time to try to reach a consensus again. The figure above shows a simplified workflow of the PBFT protocol. Where C is the client, 0, 1, 2, and 3 represent 4 nodes respectively. Specifically, 0 is the master node of the current view, 1, 2, 3 are slave nodes, and node 3 is faulty. Under normal circumstances, the PBFT consensus protocol reaches consensus on the order of transactions between nodes through a three-phase protocol. These three phases are respectively: Pre-Prepare, Prepare, and Commit: • The master node of the pre-preparation node is responsible for assigning the sequence number to the received client request, and broadcasting the message to the slave node. The message contains the hash value of the client request d, the sequence number of the current viewv, the sequence number n assigned by the master node to the request, and the signature information of the master nodesig. The scheme design of the PBFT protocol separates the request transmission from the request sequencing process, and the request transmission is not to be discussed here. The slave node that receives the message accepts the message after confirming the message is legitimate and enter preparation phase. The message in this step checks the basic signature, hash value, current view, and, most importantly, whether the master node has given the same sequence number to other request from the client in the current view. • In preparation, the slave node broadcasts the message to all nodes (including itself), indicating that it assigns the sequence number n to the client request with the hash value d under the current view v, with its signaturesig as proof. The node receiving the message will check the correctness of the signature, the matching of the view sequence number, etc., and accept the legitimate message. When the PRE-PREPARE message about a client request (from the main node) received by a node matches with the PREPARE from 2f slave nodes, the system has agreed on the sequence number requested by the client in the current view. This means that 2f+1 nodes in the current view agree with the request sequence number. Since it contains information from at most fmalicious nodes, there are a total of f+1 honest nodes that have agreed with the allocation of the request sequence number. With f malicious nodes, there are a total of 2f+1 honest nodes, so f+1represents the majority of the honest nodes, which is the consensus of the majority mentioned before. • After the node (including the master node and the slave node) receives a PRE-PREPARE message requested by the client and 2f PREPARE messages, the message is broadcast across the network and enters the submission phase. This message is used to indicate that the node has observed that the whole network has reached a consensus on the sequence number allocation of the request message from the client. When the node receives 2f+1 COMMIT messages, there are at least f+1 honest nodes, that is, most of the honest nodes have observed that the entire network has reached consensus on the arrangement of sequence numbers of the request message from the client. The node can process the client request and return the execution result to the client at this moment. Roughly speaking, in the pre-preparation phase, the master node assigns a sequence number to all new client requests. During preparation, all nodes reach consensus on the client request sequence number in this view, while in submission the consistency of the request sequence number of the client in different views is to be guaranteed. In addition, the design of the PBFT protocol itself does not require the request message to be submitted by the assigned sequence number, but out of order. That can improve the efficiency of the implementation of the consensus protocol. Yet, the messages are still processed by the sequence number assigned by the consensus protocol for the consistency of the distributed system. In the three-phase protocol execution of the PBFT protocol, in addition to maintaining the status information of the distributed system, the node itself also needs to log all kinds of consensus information it receives. The gradual accumulation of logs will consume considerable system resources. Therefore, the PBFT protocol additionally defines checkpoints to help the node deal with garbage collection. You can set a checkpoint every 100 or 1000 sequence numbers according to the request sequence number. After the client request at the checkpoint is executed, the node broadcasts messages throughout the network, indicating that after the node executes the client request with sequence number n, the hash value of the system status is d, and it is vouched by its own signature sig. After 2f+1 matching CHECKPOINT messages (one of which can come from the node itself) are received, most of the honest nodes in the entire network have reached a consensus on the system status after the execution of the client request with the sequence numbern, and then you can clear all relevant log records of client requests with the sequence number less than n. The node needs to save these2f+1 CHECKPOINTmessages as proof of the legitimate status at this moment, and the corresponding checkpoint is called a stable checkpoint. The three-phase protocol of the PBFT protocol can ensure the consistency of the processing order of the client request, and the checkpoint mechanism is set to help nodes perform garbage collection and further ensures the status consistency of the distributed system, both of which can guarantee the security of the distributed system aforementioned. How is the availability of the distributed system guaranteed? In the semi-synchronous network model, a timeout mechanism is usually introduced, which is related to delays in the network environment. It is assumed that the network delay has a known upper bound after GST. In such condition, an initial value is usually set according to the network condition of the system deployed. In case of a timeout event, besides the corresponding processing flow triggered, additional mechanisms will be activated to readjust the waiting time. For example, an algorithm like TCP's exponential back off can be adopted to adjust the waiting time after a timeout event. To ensure the availability of the system in the PBFT protocol, a timeout mechanism is also introduced. In addition, due to the potential the Byzantine failure in the master node itself, the PBFT protocol also needs to ensure the security and availability of the system in this case. When the Byzantine failure occurs in the master node, for example, when the slave node does not receive the PRE-PREPARE message or the PRE-PREPARE message sent by the master node from the master node within the time window and is thus determined to be illegitimate, the slave node can broadcast to the entire network, indicating that the node requests to switch to the new view with sequence number v+1. n indicates the request sequence number corresponding to the latest stable checkpoint local to the node, and C is to prove the stable checkpoint 2f+1 legitimate CHECKPOINT messages as aforementioned. After the latest stable checkpoint and before initiating the VIEWCHANGE message, the system may have reached a consensus on the sequence numbers of some request messages in the previous view. To ensure the consistency of these request sequence numbers to be switched in the view, the VIEWCHANGE message needs to carry this kind of the information to the new view, which is also the meaning of the P field in the message. P contains all the client request messages collected at the node with a request sequence number greater than n and the proof that a consensus has been reached on the sequence number in the node: the legitimate PRE-PREPARE message of the request and 2f matching PREPARE messages. When the master node in view v+1 collects 2f+1 VIEWCHANGE messages, it can broadcast the NEW-VIEW message and take the entire system into a new view. For the security of the system in combination with the three-phase protocol of the PBFT protocol, the construction rules of the NEW-VIEW information are designed in a quite complicated way. You can refer to the original paper of PBFT for more details. https://preview.redd.it/x5efdc908m851.png?width=1400&format=png&auto=webp&s=97b4fd879d0ec668ee0990ea4cadf476167a2948 VIEWCHANGE contains a lot of information. For example, C contains 2f+1 signature information, P contains several signature sets, and each set has 2f+1 signature. At least 2f+1 nodes need to send a VIEWCHANGE message before prompting the system to enter the next new view, and that means, in addition to the complex logic of constructing the information of VIEWCHANGE and NEW-VIEW, the communication complexity of the view conversion protocol is$O(n2$.) Such complexity also limits the PBFT protocol to support only a few nodes, and when there are 100 nodes, it is usually too complex to practically deploy PBFT. It is worth noting that in some materials the communication complexity of the PBFT protocol is inappropriately attributed to the full connection between n nodes. By changing the fully connected network topology to the P2P network topology based on distributed hash tables commonly used in blockchain projects, high communication complexity caused by full connection can be conveniently solved, yet still, it is difficult to improve the communication complexity during the view conversion process. In recent years, researchers have proposed to reduce the amount of communication in this step by adopting aggregate signature scheme. With this technology, 2f+1 signature information can be compressed into one, thereby reducing the communication volume during view change. submitted by coinexchain to u/coinexchain [link] [comments] This essentially means a 2x increase produces, in effect, a 5x upside.” #Bitcoin doesn’t conform to the typical Sharpe Ratio calculations. For instance, if Bitcoin doubled from here, it’s likely to go past$50k, which would be a 5x increase from today. This essentially means a 2x increase produces, in effect, a 5x upside. Also, Bitcoin prices will become more stable as more businesses and traders begin to accept it as a means of payment. At the moment Bitcoin’s daily price fluctuations are caused by events ... The result of controlling the quantity of bitcoin rather than its price is price instability. Bitcoin’s price is subject to wild swings as demand for it fluctuates, while its quantity does not ... Why 'stable coins' are no answer to bitcoin's instability This article is more than 1 year old. Barry Eichengreen. New cryptocurrencies such as Tether may be pegged to the dollar, but they have ... The result of controlling the quantity of bitcoin rather than its price is price instability. Bitcoin’s price is subject to wild swings as demand for it fluctuates, while its quantity does not ...

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## Bitcoin Daily View 01-25-2020 Is Coronavirus Causing Instability in the markets?

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